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jerrydylan

10/22/08 4:08 PM

#21480 RE: atheroprevent #21479

This time it is different. There is no quick fix to what ails the markets, the Greenspan put has vanished, the damage he stemmed in the 90's crisises and even the 2001-2003 bear market by flooding the markets with M3 is far worse now than then. The financial system was very leveraged, the economy was leveraged and the movers within the markets, the Wall Street firms and their clients ( hedge funds) were extremely leveraged as well. The move in commodities was leveraged hence the rapid & brutal unwind after a parabolic spike. Now, if anything is going to work-it will be a company noone has ever heard of and noone on Wall Street owns with a dynamic new technology, it could be Cortex. Let's run thru other possibilities:Raw Materials & Energy, ? No. Banks?, Doubt it. Defense, ? maybe if we go to war, ...wait a minute we are in a couple of wars. Consumer stocks? Food? ....no. Utilities? no Retail? no check out Best Buy...Health Care....maybe. But not BP. Small Cap health care can work. Not much else, trading ETF's maybe if you are really good.
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tregaron

10/22/08 4:10 PM

#21481 RE: atheroprevent #21479

Athero...
You compared the current GDP decline to the '92 recession. To me, this looks more like the '73-'75 period. We have already had the same relative drop in the S&P 500. Go back from '73 and we're at the '37-'42 time frame for a comparable drop. If we take out these levels the markets truly are forecasting depression conditions. The '29-'32 crash from peak to trough took out about 80% of the market value.



Apply these numbers to today's markets and we're looking at 3000 on the DOW. This makes a lot of sense looking at debt charts like this one.



I'm not predicting this scenario, but I think it's possible. Do you think we're heading into dust bowl times?