Ignoring Piros et al, in a changing world view, as we try to find a solid foundation.....
MF4, it is hard to find a bottom in this contracting world economy, as mutual funds and hedges are forced to sell well valued assets to cover redemptions and leveraged debt. I don't see anyone controlling the downward spiral, but I do expect rejuvenated individual and collective core values to reverse the process. Hey, my parents were DP's (displaced persons) with assets equivalent to current COR SP valuation, then bounced back, relying only on an ethic that built this country. I expect that same ethic in the COR management and have not seen anything to the contrary. I do worry about the FDA effect, but fortunately they are not in play in the short run.
>>However, even by post-Regulation Fair Disclosure standards, Wall Street analysts’ 2Q08 showing was truly abysmal. Again, they were only accurate 6.7% of the time. At that point, wouldn’t it be prudent to do away with earnings expectations completely? If not that, then surely you’d expect the Street to issue some massive downward revisions of earnings expectations for the remainder of 2008, right?
Nope.
In fact, analysts still expect S&P 500 earnings to increase in 3Q08 AND 4Q08. And they’re doing this at a time in which GDP growth is rapidly being revised to the negative — expected GDP growth for 3Q08 and 4Q08 is -1% and -2% respectively — retail just posted its largest decline since 1992 (the last serious recession) and unemployment is at a seven year high.
It’s simply stunning.
In light of this, I expect this earnings season — 3Q08— and the next — 4Q08 — to be full of surprises … to the downside. Earnings estimates are still too high. When reality crushes these daydreams there will be a slew of downgrades followed by increased institutional selling which will exert more downward pressure on stocks.
I’ll detail more about the upcoming 4Q08 liquidations tomorrow. For now, do yourself a favor and ignore most analyst predictions coming from Wall Street (I’d say “all” Street analysts, but there are undoubtedly some savvy operators out of the bunch).<<