AI
Wednesday, October 22, 2008 4:10:37 PM
Athero...
You compared the current GDP decline to the '92 recession. To me, this looks more like the '73-'75 period. We have already had the same relative drop in the S&P 500. Go back from '73 and we're at the '37-'42 time frame for a comparable drop. If we take out these levels the markets truly are forecasting depression conditions. The '29-'32 crash from peak to trough took out about 80% of the market value.
Apply these numbers to today's markets and we're looking at 3000 on the DOW. This makes a lot of sense looking at debt charts like this one.
I'm not predicting this scenario, but I think it's possible. Do you think we're heading into dust bowl times?
You compared the current GDP decline to the '92 recession. To me, this looks more like the '73-'75 period. We have already had the same relative drop in the S&P 500. Go back from '73 and we're at the '37-'42 time frame for a comparable drop. If we take out these levels the markets truly are forecasting depression conditions. The '29-'32 crash from peak to trough took out about 80% of the market value.
Apply these numbers to today's markets and we're looking at 3000 on the DOW. This makes a lot of sense looking at debt charts like this one.
I'm not predicting this scenario, but I think it's possible. Do you think we're heading into dust bowl times?
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