Replies to post #107954 on Value Microcaps Motherboard

[wadegarret]

Len, you could be right.

I think collectively we could figure out the best way to make money in a bear market. I mean, if the trend is down, it seems you'de make money by shorting. The question is, do you short the indexes or individual stocks? I guess if valuation analysis using fundamentals isn't working, you should short the indexes- no? Wade

[SSKILLZ1]

As I stated, I would not be surprised if we don't see 14,000 on the DOW (inflation adjusted) for a decade or more - perhaps not even in my lifetime. There's your forest

Len lets look at your numbers shall we. Yes I agree 14k dow was a terrible entry point (That is why I was 80-90% cash at the time), but if you remember this debate started on whether it was a good entry point now. Really that is all that matters at this point. Now I'm not saying I'm amazing bullish or even bullish at all, I still have 68% cash. But lets look at what you said shall we.

Lets Say Inflation is 3%
You say it takes the Market 10 Years to get back to even 14k with inflation adjusted stats.

So given these stats. How much does that mean we average a year up from here. Well the dow would be 18,815 under this gloomy forecast. In fact investor that invested now would make 7.80% annually, now that may not sound great, but it is better then cash at this point, and smart investors such as the group at VMC MOTHERBOARD probably could double or triple that, so their is your forest. Buffet wanted to buy now, could it go down more in the short-term absolutely, but he wasn't making his plea at 14k he was making his play under 9k, although I wouldn't be shocked if we see 7k first before a rally, your forecast would still imply to look for an entry point in the Market at some point wouldn't it. The bank certainly ain't giving you 7.80% over the next 10 years that is for sure. Keep in mind I'm still bearish, but I think what you said might be very well proven correct, however even if your statement is proven correct it still makes sense to invest in the Markets if your a long-term investor with years to go at this point given you would earn 7.80% annually for the next 10 years on average right now given your forecast, Having said that I'm a short-term trader who will continue to care only about short-term movements so that doesn't apply to me. Yet their will be some very good times to be in the market even if your forecast runs true. Just my opinion.




---All above is just my humble opinion.
And I could always be wrong.
And as always do your own DD.---
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=5316

[researcher59]

Len: Buffett's investment skills have been proven time and again over the years and he's the richest man in the world as a result. Even though Berkshire Hathaway has become a giant corporation the stock continues to dramatically outperform the S&P500 index. Perhaps BRK is where some investors who don't have the time and skill to manage a portfolio should put their money ?

Buffett is a classic value investor and the fact that he's buying means that he's find undervalued stocks out there. I am too. Market crashes always create bargains for the saavy investor and trader. Irrational pricing develops in certain stocks for a myriad of reasons as the "baby gets thrown out with the bath water".

I agree that the DOW may yet hit new lows and that its performance may be rather mediocre in the years ahead. But the crash has provided a treasure trove of bargains that investors like Buffett are finding and buying on the cheap. Outperforming the DOW should not be a problem for those with the skills and patience to capitalize on this opportunity.