Value Microcaps Motherboard

[lentinman]

Gilead: R59:

My only other comment on it is that I CAN cherry pick because anytime you have a bubble, you have a POST BUBBLE! That's what we are in and therefore, can be viewed historically in that context and all other bubble periods can be dismissed.

You are correct that I overstated the fallacy of using the 66-11,700 (100+ years) as evidence that everything is honky dory in the long run, but it is still a fallacy IMO and is the LAST argument that a person should be looking at as to whether it makes sense to invest in the DOW today - and Buffet should be the first to know better! The fact is that is the argument he used to justify getting into the markets today. It's a bogus argument, full of holes - and only NOT full of holes if you completely ignore the multi-year cyclical nature of the market! That was the main point I was getting at and why I said the returns (in the context he used them) are grossly misleading - they are!

It reminds me of the lame sales techniques used by every financial "planner" out there that just wants you to dump your money in their mutual funds. They all have a chart of the DOW over 100+ years on their wall. Nothing ever goes wrong - in the long run. Yeah right.

As I stated, I would not be surprised if we don't see 14,000 on the DOW (inflation adjusted) for a decade or more - perhaps not even in my lifetime. There's your forest.

Len






Warren Buffet (2003) "Derivatives...
are financial weapons of mass destruction... represent mega-catastrophic risk... can trigger serious systemic problems... are the result of huge-scale fraud... are like hell, easy to enter and impossible to exit"