More thoughts on the Reco market uptake data. First, let me say that I consider the sales data to be useful - but trailing edge. That data I consider on my low end of expected - but still in my expected range.
More importantly the leading edge data, the P&T data, is below expectations. If you compare stats given in May to stats given now there are some disturbing differences:
a) The rate of delayed P&T decisions has gone from 18% to 60% of P&T meetings do NOT make a decision in the first meeting. This will definitely slow the ramp - although it should be noted that with the GPOs signed and 20k vial now available I would expect that number to improve somewhat.
b) For those that do make a decision the rate of full conversion has dropped substantially - from 37pct/82pct = 45% to 9 out of 43 (21 pct) for the subsequent 2 month period.
All in all an indication that reco needs to be sold; it doesn't sell itself - that xyrmd's initial reaction that the problem with post op bleeding was not real was indicative of much of the community.
I may lower my estimates based upon the above - but need more processing time.
PS Were I reco I would try several new marketting (vs sales) approaches - below are a random sampling of such:
a) Encourage (or maybe even sponsor?) 3 or 4 of the authors of some of the many many bThrombin bleeding problem papers to put together a presentation for a surgical conference or two.
b) Find out who has to deal with bleeding issues at hospitals and ensure that THEY understand the possible connection to bThrombin. I'd bet 90% are utterly unaware of any connection. Note that I would expect that major hospitals have 3 or 4 such 7-14 day post op issues a year - so it will likely get noticed if it is a small cadre who handle such cases.
c) Find out about any lawsuits stemming from bleeding problems - and get $ values if possible. Use that - politely - in talking to P&Ts.
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