How do you get from $1.4 mm in 2Q to these numbers for 4Q08 and 1Q 09 etc? Not saying you're wrong, but curious what multiples of sales to date you're throwing in with what rationales, if that's part of your method. Are you doing anything with the data on P&T decisions so far, for example, in terms of estimating ultimate share?
3 or 4 months ago I WAG'd a 50% market share by the last month of year based upon a somewhat gut feel 2-3 years to 90+ percent market share and a somewhat skewed s curve. Total WAG - but *loosely* based upon historical conversions for things like insulin and synthroid.
Now I am using an exponential curve - I actually curve fit the Mar, Apr, May and Jun IMS numbers to an exponential curve. Obviously the big assumption there is exponentiality - no real basis other than it is what is often assumed for ramp ups. Note that obviously this is, at best, a loose analysis because of the various one time events like the intro of the 20k vial and the GPO contracts coming on line or the errors in the IMS data.
As for using the cc numbers - I can't do it yet because I need to understand how P&T committees map to the 1200 target hospitals. But obviously for the P&T committees with which they have met they are getting about 50% market share.
Finally a comment - although I agree that all of the above analyses are definitely somewhat loose I would suggest it is a systematic error to compare Reco ramp to a ramp up of a drug prescribed through individual doctors. Doctors either convert or they don't - but they don't wait somewhere between 1 and 3 months to schedule a decision and they don't generally care too much whether there is a GPO contract in place. Those kinds of delays systematically move the market adoption curve to the right compared to more typical drug launches.
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