Augustafriends , two thing I agreed with you ! I hope not happen like on scenario 3 but you never know !
Scenario 2 - Everyone knows the merger is coming, so another thing that can happen is that SIRI takes a dive to $1.50 despite the merger news. I have seen MM's do that and shorting the heck out of them. After that huge scare, it will rise fast and big.
Scenario 3 - NO MERGER and it goes below a $1