If McCain had won the nomination in 2000, he probably would have won. There were plenty of Democrats who were ok with him back then.
The biggest hit that he will take in this election is his stance on Iraq.
How often do you see the media talking about Iraq lately? Not nearly as much as they did a few months ago. The media controls how people think unfortunately.
I also don't think that we will be pulling out of Iraq any time soon no matter who is elected president. Bush will make sure of that before he leaves office.
How much experience at being Prez did Bush have in 2000??? None. Foreign affairs??? None. And now that he has experience, I'll take the new guy hands down.
Not positive but I think when the debates start Obama will eat McCain's lunch in any arena. Iraq, economy, state, pretty much all of it. Still alot of pitfalls for the Republicans between now and November. If gas goes to $5 bucks they are toast...JMHO.