If McCain had won the nomination in 2000, he probably would have won. There were plenty of Democrats who were ok with him back then.
The biggest hit that he will take in this election is his stance on Iraq.
How often do you see the media talking about Iraq lately? Not nearly as much as they did a few months ago. The media controls how people think unfortunately.
I also don't think that we will be pulling out of Iraq any time soon no matter who is elected president. Bush will make sure of that before he leaves office.