Replies to post #5562 on Dendreon Corp fka DNDNQ

[DewDiligence]

>Not at all disingenuous - It all bears on investment approach. Before the recent rejiggering of interim and trial size I had thought about going long after the failed interim. Now that approach doesn't have legs - because of the aforementioned effect plus the overall reduced power of the trial.<

I read you load and clear (and understood exactly what you meant in your first post).

As previously noted, I think the change in the SPA is predicated on maintaining investor interest after a failed interim look. Most investors will not realize that the chance of a successful final analysis given a failed interim analysis is considerably less under the new SPA than under the old SPA. This will allow DNDN to trumpet the relatively short time interval between the interim and final analyses as a hook to keep investors from bailing en masse.

[pastemp]

What is your current investment approach?Would you take a shot on interim--assign odds.

[exwannabe]

"Before the recent rejiggering of interim and trial size I had thought about going long after the failed interim."

The play is still a possibility, given that we might well see a larger PPS drop after the interrum than under the old SPA.

If DNDN drops to around $4 (and I would expect even lower is possible) on a failed interrum, what is the investment decison? Risk/reward of likely 5 to 1. Odds anybody? Perhapse some calander spreads could even be a better play.

EDIT - proces are in todays world, and of course subject to serious changes before then. But the concept holds.