Replies to post #25586 on NFL - King/Queen of the Hill Pool

[ukie]

NFL mismatches: Where to find the edge in Sunday's games
By ALAN MCNAMARA | November 28, 2007
The following is a selection of Sunday games where mismatches in key positions could have a major effect on the outcome.

Chargers cornerback Antonio Cromartie vs. Chiefs quarterback Brodie Croyle

The Chiefs plan to stick with quarterback Brodie Croyle this week and that could play right into the hands of Antonio Cromartie – literally.

The Chargers cornerback leads the NFL with six interceptions for the season, returning those for a league-high total of 100 yards. The second-year pro had three interceptions against the Colts on Nov. 11, and had two picks (one returned for a TD) against Houston on Oct. 28.

Croyle, meanwhile, has been under center for the majority of the Chiefs’ last three games and has already thrown two interceptions. He has been handed the starting role ahead of the struggling Damon Huard, who could also see time against the Chargers. Huard has thrown 11 picks in nine games this season.

Steelers running back Willie Parker vs. Bengals’ rush defense

Willie Parker has rushed for a combined 238 yards in his last three games. He should continue to tear up the turf when he faces the Bengals’ struggling defense.

Parker is second in the league in rushing (1,006 yards) and is averaging 3.91 yards per carry. He has already faced the Cincinnati defense this season, running for 126 yards and a touchdown in a 24-13 Steelers win on Oct. 28. The 5-foot-10 speedster has amassed more than 100 yards in five of his 11 games.

He has a great chance to add another 100-yard game this week. The Bengals are allowing more than 120 yards per game on the ground, and have allowed six different running backs to break the century mark. That includes a 215-yard day for Cleveland’s Jamal Lewis.

Colts receiver Reggie Wayne vs. Jaguars’ secondary

Reggie Wayne will make life very difficult for a questionable Jaguars’ secondary this week.

An injury to Pro Bowl receiver Marvin Harrison earlier this season has made Wayne central to the Colts’ plans. Already one of the NFL’s most consistent receivers, he has grasped the opportunity and is on course for his best season. The 30-year-old has 1,011 receiving yards, seven touchdowns, and is closing in on his previous bests of 1,310 yards and nine TDs.

The Jaguars’ defense has not dealt well with the pass this season, and ranks fifth from bottom in the league with 246.5 yards per game. Jacksonville has already seen Reggie Wayne this season, allowing him to rack up 131 yards in a 29-7 loss to Indianapolis on Oct. 22.

Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora vs. Bears quarterback Rex Grossman

The Giants lead the league in sacks for the season (37), with 11 of those belonging to defensive end Osi Umenyiora. Bears quarterback Rex Grossman, who has already been sacked 19 times this season, will be a worried man this week.

Umenyiora currently leads the NFL in sacks, and has recorded three in his last three games. His numbers are somewhat skewed by a six-sack performance against the Philadelphia Eagles, but his ability to get at quarterbacks – and make them pay – is clear.

Grossman, recently reestablished as the Bears’ starting QB, has received little or no pass coverage this season. He’s been sacked 11 times in three games since returning to the lineup.

Browns quarterback Derek Anderson vs. Cardinals’ pass defense

Cleveland quarterback Derek Anderson has quietly gotten the job done this season. He threw for more than 250 yards in his last two games – a streak he is capable of extending against the Cardinals.

Anderson ranks fifth in the NFL in passing touchdowns (22), throwing for three or more TDs in four of his 11 starts. The fourth-year pro’s passer rating of 89.5 is good enough for 11th in the league.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, have looked far from comfortable against the pass. They are allowing 216.5 yards per game in the air (20th in the league). In their most recent game, a 37-31 loss to San Francisco, the Cardinals allowed Trent Dilfer to throw for 256 yards and two TDs.

Anderson can at least match that performance.

[ukie]

NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 13
By SHAWN HARTLEN | November 29, 2007 | 0 comments
Green Bay at Dallas (-6 ½)

Why Packers Cover: Have covered in seven straight road contests, winning each time. Averaging almost 30 points per game on the road. Brett Favre has accounted for 11 touchdowns in his last five games with Dallas.

Why Cowboys cover: Favre has never won at Texas Stadium. Home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Tony Romo will be pumped to face his childhood idol (Favre). Receiver Patrick Crayton will be back from an ankle injury. Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in Dallas.

Total (51 ½): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.


Team Penalty YardagePlayer
Cardinals 800
Packers 710
Browns 639
Falcons 633
Cowboys 606
Ravens 598
Titans 594
Panthers 594
Atlanta at St. Louis (-3)

Why Falcons cover: Are 4-1 ATS on the road. Rams are 0-5 ATS at home this season. Warrick Dunn has six TDs and averages 4.9 yards per carry for his career against St. Louis. Marc Bulger questionable with a concussion meaning Gus Frerotte would start at QB for St. Louis.

Why Rams cover: Have covered two of last three games, both wins. Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, winning each game. Steven Jackson gets to face the NFC’s second-worst rush defense.

Total (40 ½): Over is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings.

Buffalo at Washington (-5 ½)

Why Bills cover: Have covered in five straight meetings. Trent Edwards, who is 3-1 as a starter, will quarterback the Bills. Redskins are 1-5-2 ATS in their last eight home games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

Why Redskins cover: Will want to win for murdered teammate Sean Taylor. Jason Campbell has thrown for 864 yards and six TDs in his last three games. Bills are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games.

Total (37): Over is 5-1 in Redskins’ last six games.

Detroit at Minnesota (-3 ½)

Why Lions cover: Beat Vikings 20-17 on Sept. 20 as 3-point favorites. Lead the NFL with 31 takeaways. Have league’s ninth-ranked rush defense.

Why Vikings cover: Get league’s leading rusher Adrian Peterson back from a knee injury. Jon Kitna has thrown seven INTs and only three TDs in three career games against Minnesota. Lions are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Total (44 ½): Over is 4-0 in Vikings’ last four home games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.

Houston at Tennessee (-3 ½)

Why Texans cover: Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Underdog is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings. Since Week 10 Titans have allowed an average of 149 yards rushing per game.

Why Titans cover: Could have DT Albert Haynesworth back from a hamstring injury. Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings. Houston leads the NFL with 29 turnovers.

Total (43): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-7)

Why Jaguars cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Have AFC’s second-best rushing attack. Held Peyton Manning to 54-percent completion rate, four touchdowns and three interceptions in their last five meetings. In three career games against Indy, Maurice Jones-Drew has 321 yards rushing and four TDs.

Why Colts cover: Are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Have NFL’s second-best defense, holding opponents to 15.6 points per game. Won four of last five meetings and last two in Indianapolis.

Total: (45): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Indianapolis.

N.Y. Jets at Miami (-1 ½)

Why Jets cover: Have won six of last seven meetings. Are 18-4-2 ATS in last 24 meetings and 4-0 ATS in last four meetings in Miami. Dolphins could be down to fourth-string running back Patrick Cobbs with Ricky Williams and Jesse Chatman both suffering injuries last week. Thomas Jones has rushed for 179 yards in two career games against Miami.

Why Dolphins cover: Holding opponents to 11.5 points per game in their last four contests. Could be the team’s best chance to avoid going winless for the season. Favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Total (38): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Miami.

San Diego at Kansas City (+5 ½)

Why Chargers cover: LaDainian Tomlinson has rushed for 513 yards and scored four TDs in his last five games against Kansas City. Chiefs are 1-4-1 ATS at home. Both Chiefs QBs are banged up. K.C. has lost three straight at Arrowhead Stadium and four of its last five.

Why Chiefs cover: Kolby Smith rushed for 150 yards and two touchdowns in his first start last week. Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. San Diego has lost four of five games on the road this season. Underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings. Chargers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Kansas City.

Total (37 ½): Over is 4-0 in Chiefs’ last four home games and 4-0-1 in Chargers’ last five road games.

Seattle at Philadelphia (-3)

Why Seahawks cover: Are the league’s least penalized team. Have averaged 98.7 rushing yards per game since Maurice Morris replaced the injured Shaun Alexander. Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Donovan McNabb still bothered by thumb and ankle injuries and might not play.

Why Eagles cover: Have covered in three straight games and five of last seven. Lost to New England by three points last week after being pegged as 22-point underdogs. Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Total (42): Over is 4-1 in Eagles’ last five games overall.

San Francisco at Carolina (-3)

Why 49ers cover: Frank Gore may finally be healthy. He compiled 214 yards and two scores last week. Panthers have lost seven straight home games and haven’t covered at home this season. Carolina has only managed 50 points in its last five games.

Why Panthers cover: The 49ers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 meetings between these two teams, and 0-4 ATS in their last four games in Carolina. San Francisco has been outscored by 60 points on the road this season. Vinny Testaverde will start at QB if healthy.

Total (35 ½): Over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings and 4-1 in the last five games in Carolina.

Cleveland at Arizona (-1)

Why Browns cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. Have best return game in the NFL. Cardinals are the league’s most penalized team and have committed 11 more than the next closest club. Jamal Lewis has been on fire, and has rushed for 257 yards in two career game against Arizona. Cardinals will be without Pro Bowl safety Adrian Wilson who is out for the season with a heel injury.

Why Cardinals cover: Are averaging 32.3 points over their last three games. Kurt Warner has passed for 489 yards and scored four touchdowns in two career games versus Cleveland.

Total (51 ½): Over is 9-1-1 in Browns’ last 11 games and 4-1 in Cardinals’ last five games.

Denver at Oakland (+3 ½)

Why Broncos cover: Have won five straight meetings and four in a row at Oakland. Own AFC’s fourth-best offense. Road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Why Raiders cover: Justin Fargas has rushed for 384 yards and two TDs in four games since becoming the starting running back. Denver running backs Travis Henry, Andre Hall and Selvin Young are all banged up.

Total (41 ½): Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings and 4-1 in the last five games in Oakland.

N.Y. Giants at Chicago (+2)

Why Giants cover: Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Bears starting running back Cedric Benson was lost for the season after injuring his ankle last week. Chicago is 1-4 ATS at home.

Why Bears cover: Have won four of the last five meetings. Devin Hester changes opponents’ kicking games. Defense held Eli Manning to 121 yards passing and picked him off twice in their last meeting. Giants are averaging 16.5 points per game over their last four after scoring 26.7 in their first seven.

Total (42 ½): Under is 4-0 in Giants’ last four road games.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3)

Why Buccaneers cover: Have NFC’s top-rated pass defense. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Saints and 4-0 ATS in their last four games in New Orleans. Underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings. Saints have the worst field-goal percentage in the NFL at 53.3 percent.

Why Saints cover: Drew Brees has thrown for 965 yards and seven TDs in four career games against Tampa Bay. Buccaneers could be without Jeff Garcia which means either Luke McCown or Bruce Gradkowski would start at quarterback. A win would move them one game behind the Bucs for the division lead.

Total (42): Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-7)

Why Bengals cover: Have won three of their last four at Heinz Field. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Pittsburgh. Rudi Johnson starting to get healthy. Road team is 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings and has won seven straight. Steelers have failed to cover in three straight contests.

Why Steelers cover: Could get star safety Troy Polamalu back from a knee injury. Holding opponents to nine points per game at home. Bengals are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.

Total (45): Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Pittsburgh.

New England at Baltimore (+20 ½)

Why Patriots cover: Will want to rebound from a near loss to Philadelphia last week as 22-point favorites. Adalius Thomas will face his former team for the first time. Ravens have lost five straight and are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

Why Ravens cover: Could learn from Philadelphia’s success against New England last week. Patriots lost key linebacker Roosevelt Colvin for the season last week. Home team has won five of the last six meetings. Held Tom Brady to 172 yards and no touchdowns in their last meeting.

Total (51 ½): Over is 14-3 in Patriots’ last 17 games and 6-1 in Ravens’ last seven Monday games.