Replies to post #25587 on NFL - King/Queen of the Hill Pool

[ukie]

NFL line movers and shakers in Week 13
11/28/2007 - By: L. Kostroski
Three road teams – two that are favorites and another likely to become one – highlight the movers and shakers in the NFL this week. The Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers are both starting to play to their talent level while the Cleveland Browns continue to put up the big offensive numbers the public loves. Expect each of these trends to lead to significant line movements.


San Diego at Kansas City

Open – San Diego (-4)


This line has already climbed up to -5 in favor of the Chargers and will only rise as the week progresses. Bettors have been waiting for this extremely talented, yet underachieving, San Diego team to break out. It looked like it was on the verge with a three-game winning streak earlier in the season, but then it lost an ugly game in Minnesota.


Now, following a convincing 18-point win over Baltimore that featured Philip Rivers’ best game in over a month, the Chargers finally appear ready to put a stranglehold on the AFC West. They are already getting heavy action and that will only continue. Kansas City may have beaten San Diego earlier this year but that won’t deter the public from siding with the favored Chargers.


A look at Kansas City’s current state makes that understandable. Its offense features no-names Brodie Coyle and Kolby Smith at quarterback and running back, respectively. That has led to four straight Chiefs losses. If you think K.C. can turn it around and sweep the season series, wait until closer to game time to get the best value. If you believe this is the week San Diego finally shows everything it’s capable of, place your bet now to get the lowest number.


Denver at Oakland

Open – Denver (-3)


Oakland’s 20-17 win at Kansas City might suggest to some that the Raiders are turning the corner. But don’t expect the majority of the public to drink that Kool-Aid. The Raiders are still the Raiders despite what they did last week. Denver, meanwhile, is slowly starting to win back the respect of bettors despite its bone-headed decision to kick to Devin Hester last week. Luckily for the Broncos, there’s no Hester on Oakland’s roster.


Denver is kind of in the same boat as San Diego. Much more was expected of each team prior to the season opener. The Broncos haven’t met those expectations yet but the public is starting to see what it expected to see. Denver should have won last week and should be riding a three-game winning streak.


The public also loves to bet against the hapless Raiders. The team holds little to no esteem right now among bettors. That will be obvious with this line movement. If you like Denver in this game, take the bet now while the line has the most value. If you think the Raiders can make it two straight, wait until closer to kickoff to place your bet.


Cleveland at Arizona

Open – Arizona (-1 ½)


The favorite in this interconference battle could very well change by kickoff time. The Cardinals opened as the favorite but the line is slowly moving toward the Browns. It could lead to Cleveland giving Arizona points by game time.


We’ve said it in this spot before: the betting public loves offense. And there are few teams in the NFL providing more offense than the Browns. They have won five of their last six based largely on their ability to rack up a big score. Cleveland is third in the NFL with 28.6 points per game and has shown the ability to score against any team and in a variety of ways.


That doesn’t bode well for an Arizona team that surrendered 37 points to the offensively-challenged 49ers last week. San Francisco hadn’t scored more than 20 points a game prior to last week and the public knows that. Again, the public loves offense and will expect the Browns to put up huge numbers in this game.


If you believe Cleveland will continue its offensive onslaught against the league, take the line now while the Browns are still the underdog. If you like the Cardinals, delay your wager until later in the week.