Replies to post #52690 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

>given MAXY-Alpha’s hold, would you pls. update your “HCV: Most Likely to Succeed” chart?<

Good idea. Maxy-alpha probably should have been listed in a different class from Albuferon and Locteron because it is (was) an NME that entailed much higher development risk. Albuferon is just ifn bound to albumin, and Locteron is indistinguishable from ordinary ifn, according to Biolex.

I’ll post an updated table shortly.

[DewDiligence]

HCV: Most Likely to Succeed (IMHO)

In descending order of likelihood of success:

1. Telaprevir (VRTX/JNJ in phase-2).

2. The enhanced interferons: Albuferon (NVS/HGSI in phase-3) and Locteron (OctoPlus/Biolex in phase-2). I’m excluding Maxy-alpha from MAXY, which is now on hold, and ifn-lambda from ZGEN, which is an altogether different animal.

3. The “other” protease inhibitors: Boceprevir (SGP in phase-2) and ITMN-191 (Roche/ITMN in phase-1).

4. Various early-stage compounds from GILD (alone), GILD/ACHN, Roche/VRUS, Medivir/Tibotec, and IDIX.

JMHO, FWIW