Replies to post #48769 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Does anyone think the Telcyta debacle played a role in the DSMB’s decision to terminate the PFE/COLY trials so early?

[DewDiligence]

> COLY is essentially selling for cash now, though, that is before the 20 mill for the 3M TLR patents is spent.<

It’s worth a look as an asset play, but I don’t have a good handle on the value of the remaining programs. If I were to value them at nil, I would want a hefty margin relative to the cash on hand in order to buy.

The last time I took large positions based entirely on the discount to the cash balance was about five years ago with Variagenics and Genomica, both of whom were eventually acquired. But I bought those for a bigger discount to cash than COLY is trading at now.

[DewDiligence]

COLY update: PF-3512676 is still breathing,
perhaps with assistance from a ventilator:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070802/neth094.html?.v=12

>>
“The failure of PF-3512676 in combination with cytotoxic chemotherapy to add benefit in the treatment of advanced non-small cell lung cancer was disappointing. Pfizer is continuing its trials of PF-3512676 in refractory non-small cell lung cancer in combination with Tarceva® and in advanced melanoma in combination with Pfizer's anti-CTLA-4 (cytotoxic T lymphocyte antigen-4) targeted monoclonal antibody (CP-675,206). In the coming months, we hope to provide additional clarity on Pfizer's ongoing and planned clinical programs with PF-3512676.”
<<

The distinguishing feature of the continuing NSCLC trial with Tarceva is that it does not include chemotherapy because Tarceva is approved as monotherapy in the second-line setting. There is no indication in COLY’s PR, however, that the PF-3512676 trial with Avastin in first-line NSCLC will go forward, nor is there any indication of a continued PF-3512676 program in breast cancer.