COLY
I don't know where the bottom is. You are right, esp in the near term, COLY could easily trade at a 20% discount to cash. I am starting to nibble today and may end up doubling my position if it gets much below $3.00.
Unfortunately, other than their adjuvant, COLY now has no late stage candidates, so valuation is very subjective. But in a reasonable biotech market, I don't think COLY's pipeline would be valued at nil. They have the strongest TLR patent position (COLY gets a piece of just about anything DVAX will ever sell) and they seem to have the respect of big pharma. I can see news within the year generated by SLE and RA partnerships as Ph 1 gets started and I can see Sanofi-Aventis getting the asthma/allergy product into Ph2. And, apparently, COLY wants to start a Ph 1 with one of the 3M products in cancer.
Any news from PFE in the next year will also generate movement. If they announce a complete cessation to all 676 development or, conversely, if they clear it for continued testing, all other factors will pale by comparison. If PFE's decision then becomes the key, handicapping that becomes the most important consideration. From the language used, it seems most likely that some intermediate measure of toxicity, such as transaminase or CBC changes, triggered this halt. If so, PFE may not abandon their investment entirely. It even seems possible, if not plausible, that the cohort that has already received 676 for NSCLC could eventually show a survival advantage.
I hope I don't sound too much like a cock-eyed optimist. It is easy to fall in love with something you know well. COLY's IR person, Sue Hagar, has always been one of the most helpful of any company I've owned. On my big losers the past two years, I 'doubled-tripled down' on NABI and PDGI (SFCC) and ended up more than recouping my losses. And I ran away from TELK on the first trading day in Jan. No regrets. I don't think I will run away from COLY.
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