Elder Bush is not a neocon and is against the war with Iraq. Elder Bush is no longer retained by the Carlyle Group which carries a strong neocon influence as of October, 2003, after his trip to Russia.
"A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm," was co-authored by neocon Perle, it is the blueprint for most of our Middle East aggression and by its presentation date, July 8, 1996, proves that a terrorist threat to the United States is not behind the war in Iraq. ‘Clean Break’ repudiates the underlying concept of "land for peace". In a blow to the neocon grand design, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon says Israel will have to give up some occupied land for peace with Palestinians, but vows to speed up work on a disputed West Bank barrier which is being built mostly inside the internationally accepted 1967 border between Israel and the West Bank in order to insure the maximum number of Israeli settlements and land on its Israeli side This then is iffy, however, Sharon’s statement is at odds with the neocon’s ‘Clean Break’ and supposedly Israel is giving up land for peace.
‘Clean Break’ also calls for the elimination of the Saddam Hussein regime in Baghdad, as a first step towards overthrowing or destabilizing the governments of Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. The neocon plan to eliminate Saddam and neutralize Iraq is not as easy as Bush was led to believe as the cost in all its aspects becomes unmanageable. This would be another mark against the neocons. Neoconservatism, says scholar Mark Gerson, has “become what we now identify as American conservatism; in that sense, they have been so successful that it is now appropriate to drop the prefix ‘neo’ from their appellation.” Except that the occupation of Iraq, in that it has become so cumbersome, cannot be called a success. There is no victory and if we do eventually subdue Iraq the cost will be so high that in my opinion it will hurt the Neoconservative cause.
I would further submit that the neocons and ‘Clean Break” have entangled The United States in a web that is giving Russia the time it needs to regroup. This I think has finally dawned on Bush and should make him even less enamored of the neocons.
And now I would add this to our list. The neocons I do not believe would be happy about the following.
Israel Fumes at U.S. Opening to Doves, Steps Up Raids Updated 8:28 AM ET December 3, 2003 By Mark Heinrich JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israel fumed on Wednesday over Secretary of State Colin Powell's plan to meet the authors of a symbolic Middle East peace deal that the Israeli government has rejected as capitulation to Palestinian demands. http://dailynews.att.net/cgi-bin/news?e=pri&dt=031203&cat=news&st=newsmideastdc
There is a chance that the neocons are beginning to fall from grace, very quietly and backstage, and Bush the Elder could be gaining some influence over junior. United States foreign policy seems a little less tilted toward Israel these days. But not enough to go on yet. -Am
Reference:
On July 8, 1996, Richard Perle, now the Chairman of the Defense Policy Board, an advisory group that reports to Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, presented a written document to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, spelling out a new Israeli foreign policy, calling for a repudiation of the Oslo Accords and the underlying concept of "land for peace"; for the permanent annexation of the entire West Bank and Gaza Strip; and for the elimination of the Saddam Hussein regime in Baghdad, as a first step towards overthrowing or destabilizing the governments of Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. The document was prepared for the Jerusalem and Washington, D.C.-based Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies (IASPS), a think tank financed by Richard Mellon-Scaife. The report, "A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm," was co-authored by Perle; Douglas Feith, currently the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy; David Wurmser, currently special assistant to State Department chief arms control negotiator John Bolton; and Meyrav Wurmser, now director of Mideast Policy at the Hudson Institute.
The neocons’ influence waned with the election of George H.W. Bush, a so-called realist who did not share the neocons’ grand dreams of remaking the world.
The Carlyle Group, an investment bank that retained the elder Mr. Bush as an adviser until a few weeks ago, has a close business relationship with Mr. Khodorkovsky. Although Mr. Bush was in Russia as a Carlyle representative, the bank said, his visit had nothing to do with oil deals and he did not meet privately with Mr. Khodorkovsky. - How Russian Oil Tycoon Courted Friends in U.S. By TIMOTHY L. O'BRIEN, Published: November 5, 2003
Khodorkovsky who had a close relationship with the Carlyle Group was arrested on October 26, 2003
It looks like Bush left as a Carlyle advisor right before Khodorkovsky was arrested.
I previously posted Azerbaijan is the key, always has been to the entire region. It is an open secret that Azerbaijan takes an extremely important strategic position in the region - it borders on Iran.
In the following article there is no mention of the coveted pipeline. Mustn’t let the people know there might be an ulterior motive for stationing troops in Azerbaijan.
AKU, Azerbaijan, Dec. 3 — Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld arrived at this Caspian Sea port on Wednesday to warn that the inland ocean, which produces oil as well as caviar, is also a transit route for terrorists, unconventional weapons and narcotics.
The following text does mention the pipeline but we will probably see Rumsfeld play primarily to the ‘terrorist’ aspect.
Like Azerbaijan, Georgia has strategic importance for the West. It lies on the route of a pipeline being built by western oil majors which, when completed in 2005, will ship Caspian Sea oil to world markets.
This is a direct threat to Russia. Certainly Putin has seen this coming.
US defense chief arrives in strategic Azerbaijan
BAKU (AFP) Dec 03, 2003 US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld held top-level talks Wednesday in Azerbaijan, part of a Caucasus region which holds strategic importance for the United States but where regional superpowers Russia and Iran are also jealously guarding their own interests.
The Pentagon chief met with Azerbaijan's recently-elected President Ilham Aliyev and Defense Minister Safar Abbiyev.
"We do value the strategic relationship between our two countries," Rumsfeld told reporters in between meetings.
"We want our relations to cooperate in all these fields -- the economy, military, energy," Aliyev said.
There was speculation that Rumsfeld could use Azerbaijan, an oil-rich state wedged between Russia and Iran, as a jumping-off point for visits to other states in the region, but this has not been confirmed by Pentagon officials.
It was expected that Rumsfeld's talks in Azerbaijan would focus on growing military cooperation between the two countries, which are bound by a shared interest in the region's oil reserves and wariness of the intentions of Russia and Iran.
Analysts said the Pentagon could be seeking agreement on stationing US troops on Azeri soil as part of a Defense Department review of how American forces are deployed in Europe, Africa and the Middle East. Azeri officials have refused to confirm if this subject will be on the agenda for the talks.
General Chuck Wald, deputy chief of the US European Command, hinted earlier this year that troops could be deployed to Azerbaijan to protect the country's Caspian Sea oil fields and the pipelines for shipping the crude to western markets.
"Azerbaijan's territory is situated in the best place for US bases and provides the best flying times to the Middle East, Russia and even China," said Vafa Guluzade, a former state adviser on foreign affairs to the Azeri leadership.
Azerbaijan itself has much to gain from US military assistance, according to analysts.
It lies in a tough neighbourhood. To the north is Russia, its former imperial master which is competing with Washington for influence in the Caucasus region and control of the Caspian Sea's oil.
In the south is Iran, a country with which Azerbaijan has cool relations and which US President George W. Bush has designated as part of an "axis of evil."
In mid-2001, Tehran sent a gunship to press its claim to a prospective oil field in the Caspian Sea which Azerbaijan insists belongs to it. The two sides are now locked in a tense stand-off.
Some Azeri officials also suspect Iran of trying to export its Islamic revolution into Muslim but secular Azerbaijan.
The US defense secretary last visited Azerbaijan almost exactly two years ago, in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington.
Since then the two countries have built close military ties. Azerbaijan is the only majority Muslim nation to send troops to Iraq, where it has a contingent of about 150 soldiers assisting the US-led security operation. Washington counts Baku as a member of its global coalition against terror.
The United States has returned the favour by providing several million dollars in military aid.
It is helping improve Azerbaijan's border security, it provides intelligence assistance and has contributed five second-hand coastguard cutters to bolster Azerbaijan's tiny Caspian Sea flotilla.
It was rumoured that the neighbouring Caucasus state of Georgia could also be on Rumsfeld's itinerary, though neither the Pentagon nor Georgian officials have announced that Rumsfeld will be going there.
Like Azerbaijan, Georgia has strategic importance for the West. It lies on the route of a pipeline being built by western oil majors which, when completed in 2005, will ship Caspian Sea oil to world markets.
Georgia's President Eduard Shevardnadze was deposed last month in a bloodless coup after protests sparked by rigged parliamentary elections.
He was replaced by an interim government which is keen to win the West's endorsement. But Russia is an influential player in Georgia and does not want to give Washington a free hand there, say analysts.
Rumsfeld held top-level talks Wednesday in Azerbaijan, part of a Caucasus region which holds strategic importance for the United States but where regional superpowers Russia and Iran are also jealously guarding their own interests.
Secular Azerbaijan is Muslim but some Azeri officials suspect Iran of trying to export its Islamic revolution into Azerbaijan.
Donald Rumsfeld, the US defense secretary, is expected in Tbilisi, Georgia, today.
Analysts say the real decision on Georgia's territorial future will be made in Russia. " Russia will have to decide whether it wants to calm the situation, or whether it wants to use the Muslim enclave of Adzharia as leverage to pressure the new Georgian government," says Ghia Nodia, head of the Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development.
What we have is the United States an occupying force in Muslim Afghanistan and Muslim Iraq courting regions in the Caspian area some of which are predominantly Muslim. It is very convenient that at the very time Rumsfeld is whoring around the Caucasus region that we seem to be involved in a crisis with or are at odds with long time ally Israel.
In an opportune stroke of luck a row between Washington and Israel, dreaded enemy of the Muslims, over Middle East peace proposals ratchets up a level on Friday when Secretary of State Colin Powell meets maverick peacemakers condemned by Israel's right-wing government.
It is important to show the Muslims that we do not always ‘spread em’ for Israel. I am not sure I am buying all this. -Am
Georgia leaders worried by stability threat By Tom Warner in Tbilisi Published: December 4 2003 23:51 / Last Updated: December 4 2003 23:51
Georgia's new leaders warned that they were facing a wave of attacks aimed at destabilising the country after a large bomb exploded outside the state television building late on Wednesday night.
There were no casualties, but the fact that it was the third apparently politically-motivated attack in Tbilisi in a week has jangled the nerves of the transition administration.
The bomb exploded while the Russian ambassador was inside the building taking part in a live broadcast and just ahead of a visit by Donald Rumsfeld, the US defence secretary, who is expected in Tbilisi today.
It comes only two weeks after the resignation of President Eduard Shevardnadze, the former Soviet foreign minister, who was forced from office after thousands of protesters gathered outside parliament.
On Tuesday a bullet was fired into the apartment of a prominent politician and on Monday there was a smaller explosion near the office of Georgia's Labour party.
Another US delegation in Tbilisi on Thursday announced it had approved an urgent $5m (?4.2m, £2.9m) of supplemental aid to help the new government pay salaries plus $2m to cover winter heating costs and an unspecified amount of food aid.
A US official said the payroll package was partly aimed at ensuring the loyalty of police, whose salaries have often been delayed because of chronic revenue shortfalls.
Georgia's security ministry said on Thursday it had found a cache of arms stolen from an evacuated Russian army base and was investigating whether a man taken into custody in connection with the find was involved in the Wednesday night bombing.
Georgia's security minister, Valeri Khaburdzania, said the cache included 77 bombs made of plastic explosives, equivalent to 200 kg of TNT.
Mikheil Saakashvili, who led the protests to oust Mr Shevardnadze and was expected to win a snap presidential election next month, said the explosion was an attempt to "trigger chaos" and promised that the perpetrators would be found and punished.
But in a country where law enforcement has traditionally been weak and crime syndicates have frequently interfered in politics, there were worries that the country's new leadership could be facing a well-organised campaign that it was ill-equipped to deal with.
Washington's greatest worry is that Russia could use the apparent instability to increase the activity of its military forces based in four different regions of Georgia - the breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the autonomous Adjara region and Javakheti, the largely ethnic Armenian region. Russia's ambassador said after Wednesday night's bombing that it "proved Georgia is unstable".
Georgian officials said Mr Rumsfeld's visit would have great symbolic impact. But discussions on how the US could actively assist Georgia in maintaining security are just beginning, they and US officials said.
Mr Rumsfeld is to meet Georgia's defence minister and visit a team of US special forces involved in a $64m train-and-equip programme, aimed mainly at helping the country deal with international terrorists and Chechen rebels who are sheltering in Georgia's mountains.
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