Replies to post #49570 on InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[ed_ferrari]

GE_Jim - very well put, and I concur!

[ziploc_1]

GE Jim: you signed off "IMO"

I am sure this is your opinion at the current time but I believe it will change when you get back in as a long. A win over NOK in a reasonable time frame, which seems to be a likely event, and one or two more major licensees, which now also seem likely might make you rethink your position as a trader rather than an investor.

[jai]

I have to disagree with you here. I'm here for the home run just like many other people. I put IDCC's valuation potential at between $100 and $200 a share. That is a hefty target and some 500% to 1000% percent above the current levels.

Now you say how do I come out with these "pie in the sky numbers"?

Right now QCOM and IDCC are basically selling for 10x revenues.

QCOM Revenue (ttm): 3.97B Market Cap: 35.14B

IDCC Revenue (ttm): 87.90M Market Cap: 1.13B

So in order for my low end target of $100 a share to hit IDCC would have to do about $125 million a quarter.

That would be $500 million a year and 10x revs would be a $5 billion market cap.

5x$20 = $100 a share.

Right now we are at $26 million per quarter.

NOK/SAM 2G would be another $25 million per quarter.

The remaining $75 million needs to come from the following events.

NOK 3G
SAM 3G
LG 3G
ERICSSON 3G
LU 3G
NT 3G
FUTJISU 3G
PANASONIC 3G
IFX CHIPS 3G
MOT 3G
NEC 3G INCREASING

So in my opinion I'm still looking and expecting $100 a share, I'm just not expecting it next week.

[rmarchma]

Ge_jim and Ed re the 98 pound weakling

Although IDCC has not done as well in 2G as many would have hoped, they have still collected about $500m in 2G licensing revenues to date. These 2G revenues could easily exceed 1 billion dollars as soon as Nokia and Samsung pay 2G royalties for 2002 - 2006. Other than Qualcomm, I know of no other company that has earned nearly that much in licensing revenues off of 2G.

The real 3G game is just beginning. IDCC has played the preliminary 3G game much better than they did the 2G game. They have been very involved in setting the 3G standards, and actively participating in various industry bodies and forums. IDCC is a little behind in licensing CDMA2000, but they are very focussed on licensing that standard according to Merritt.

Merritt also seemed to suggest that IDCC's delay in obtaining additional 3G licenses was a result of being financially strong enough to wait for better deals. However, he has promised some more licenses soon with recognized companies. I'm not yet ready to dismiss their tremendous potential as board hype.

We are starting to see some of that 3G potential manifested in one licensee, NEC. But it is about time for them to start executing on a larger scale, and begin fulfilling the potential that many of us still see in IDCC. I have certainly criticized some of IDCC's top leadership, but I have never lost faith in their tremendous potential.

[BondGekko]

When the stock does hit 100 a share which is only 5 times what it is worth now, what will you say, ha, you will probably say your chart called it

[BondGekko]

GeJim did you own Qualcomm in the early 90's, did you think Qualcomm was going to reach hundreds of dollars a share, who else forecasted that in the early to mid 90's, well since you might not answer this post I will say you probably did not

In fact most if not all analysts did not know, so I am not surprised that you think IDCC will not reach hundreds of dollars per share.

Generally great stock runs are not printed before hand in magazines, message boards, cnbc, etc. It is only the select few who are there at the beginning and reap the greatest rewards.

How many were there at the beginning of Microsoft, Home Depot, etc. Did you buy Microsoft when they went public? That is why I don't need you or anyone to tell me what IDCC will do because you are as much a Nostradomus as we all are