Replies to post #5128 on Mining Sector Ideas

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, The miner ETF charts reached their 200 MAs in the pre-market futures on Monday (below), but not during regular hours. The bullion ETFs (GLD, SLV) still not that close though. Fwiw, before adding more, I'll probably wait until both the miners and bullion ETFs have at least reached their 200 MAs during regular trading.

(approx figures).


GLD ---- 388 (375)
GDX ---- 75 (76)
GDXJ --- 98 (99)

SLV ----- 57 (52)
SIL ------ 73 (73)
SILJ ---- 24 (24)


With all the unknowns and uncertainties, I figure regular investors may be leery of jumping back into the metals (?) But on the other hand, the big players / institutions might take full advantage of this buying opportunity (?) Tough to say, but with a 30% allocation already, it's hard to justify adding much more.

With zero in the stock market, that would normally be the place to do some buying, from an asset allocation perspective anyway. But even if the Iran war ends, we're probably in for a global recession (?), so a stock rebound may fizzle and not endure for long. So strategy-wise, that would leave a shorter term trade (S+P 500) with the goal of capturing the (temporary) rebound. Either that or just stay in cash / T-Bills and forget about it. 2026 is looking like a lousy year.



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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Some buoyancy returning to the metals? A nice bounce right now in the after hours futures market, so fingers are crossed :o)

In previous big stock market drops (2008, 2020), the metals have actually fallen more than the broad stock market, but then staged a very strong rebound. The dynamics of the current situation may be different, but hopefully we've seen the bottom.

It looks like Trump wants out of this war, so the big question is whether Bibi is also ready to pull back? Israel has apparently taken a lot of missile hits, and even with the THAAD, the Iron Dome is letting through too many missiles. So Bibi might agree with Trump and wind things down. Let's hope.



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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, UVXY starting to get some mojo. Stocks could be teetering on a major market puke (?)

Comparing the current situation / chart to the 2025 tariff crash, the similarities are there, but the current situation could be much worse since there is no easy / fast exit for Trump to take.

Last year he merely had to announce a delay on the tariff decision, and the stock market quickly recovered. This time he's got a real mess, and no easy way out. Declaring victory and pulling back from the brink would be the best outcome for the stock market. Don should just cut his losses, but he's in too deep (?)



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