Replies to post #101364 on Tesla Inc (TSLA)

[zen222]

How are you enjoying TSLA's price action today?


That idiotic rebuttal didn't disprove anything in my post, whatsoever.

"It is really too bad some people are so deranged that they can't even interpret data."

LOL! Hey pot, meet kettle.

You, just 3 days ago:

"Worldwide auto sales saw a slowdown in Q4 2025, most notably with Tesla's deliveries falling significantly (around 16%) ...
So technically, Tesla sales INCREASED!!!! Total Production: 434,358 (down 5.5% from Q4 2024)"

Meanwhile, in reality:
Tesla just reported its electric vehicle sales for the fourth quarter of 2025, and they capped off the sharpest annual decline in the company's history.

It is really too bad because someone hates another person they simply can't interpret real facts.

Sad AND Pathetic



Seriously, don't you ever get tired of repeatedly humiliating yourself by constantly exposing your overt ignorance to the world? That's rhetorical, dummy.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=177096545

[zen222]

Tesla’s full 2025 data from Europe is in, and it is a total bloodbath
https://electrek.co/2026/01/06/tesla-full-2025-data-europe-total-bloodbath/

The data is in for Tesla’s full year 2025 in Europe, and frankly, it’s a bloodbath across most major markets.

Following years of explosive growth that saw the Model Y become the best-selling car on the continent, Tesla hit a massive demand wall in 2025.

According to registration data compiled from major European markets, Tesla saw its total volume drop from roughly 326,000 units in 2024 to just over 235,000 in 2025. That is a staggering 27.8% year-over-year decline.
When you look at the data for each market, it becomes even more interesting. Tesla’s sales went down in every single market in 2025, with the single exception of Norway:



Germany was once Tesla’s growth engine in Europe, and in 2025, it saw registrations crash by 48.4%, falling from over 37,500 units to just over 19,000.

It wasn’t just Germany. France implemented new rules for its “bonus écologique” that effectively disqualified the Chinese-made Model 3 Highland, leading to a 37.5% drop.

Other markets that dialed back support, like Sweden and Belgium, saw catastrophic drops of 66.9% and 53.1%, respectively.

The Norwegian Exception
But amidst this sea of red ink, there is one incredibly bright green spot that proves the EV transition is far from over: Norway.

However, this is clearly temporary. Most of Tesla’s growth in Norway in 2025 came from the last two months of the year
That’s due to Norway changing its EV incentives in 2026, making more expensive EVs, such as Tesla’s, ineligible for some tax incentives.

It resulted in pulling a lot of demand forward into Q4 2025 for Tesla, and consequently, it should make things difficult for the automaker in 2026.

This 2025 data is a tough pill to swallow for Tesla investors, who are coping by telling themselves that Tesla’s EV sales don’t matter anymore
.
The truth is that this is an impressive demand cliff by any standard that point to significant brand problems, which are due to a mix of Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO, becoming highly toxic, and Tesla’s EV lineup becoming stale amid tougher competition.

[zen222]

Tesla: Stock Is Overvalued With Technical And Fundamental Issues
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4857286-tesla-stock-overvalued-with-technical-and-fundamental-issues?gt=f23664a215469e8e

Tesla, Inc. is significantly overvalued and faces a bearish technical setup as we enter 2026.

TSLA's Q4 2025 deliveries fell 16% YoY, likely due to the expiration of Federal EV tax credits.

Loss of Federal incentives is expected to pressure 2026 deliveries, with consensus estimates likely too high.

I anticipate a substantial stock decline in 2026, potentially exceeding 50% from peak as valuation resets.

Overvaluation
It doesn't matter what valuation metric you prefer; Tesla is significantly overvalued as compared to the sector median in every instance.



I understand that some stocks are awarded a premium valuation and that they can sustain a high valuation over long periods of time. However, Tesla's valuation is too far stretched at this point.



We can see in the chart above that Tesla's stock price moved too far from the EPS. The last time the stock sustained a move above the EPS trend line, it was followed by a bear market, which occurred during 2022. Currently, the price is even further away from the EPS trend line.

So, it is likely that a sharp decline happens again as the stock gets revalued. I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock drop down into the $200s during 2026. This would get the stock back in line with the EPS trend line.



Tesla's monthly chart above shows a double-top formation that occurred over the past year. This double-top also formed a bearish divergence. The bearish divergence is indicated as the price made a higher high from December 2024 to December 2025. During that same time, the RSI made a lower high. Bearish divergences like this typically result in significant stock price declines from what I have observed.

The last time Tesla's stock formed a bearish divergence was in 2021. This was followed by a 76% drop in the stock price from the end of 2021 to January 2023.

Tesla's next earnings report for Q4 2025 is scheduled for January 28, 2026. This could be the next major catalyst for the stock. If sales show continued weakness and come in below analysts' expectations, it could drive the stock lower. If Tesla lowers guidance for 2026 and analysts lower revenue and earnings expectations, it would put further negative pressure on the stock.

[zen222]

Tesla Rival Lucid Unveils Prototype Robotaxi In Collaboration With Uber Amid Strong Q4 Deliveries
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-rival-lucid-unveils-prototype-203113870.html

Lucid Group Inc. on Monday unveiled a prototype of its new Robotaxi built in collaboration with ride-hailing giant Uber Technologies Inc. and Nuro Inc.

Lucid Unveils Robotaxi Prototype
The automaker revealed the prototype, based on its Gravity SUV, at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2026. The prototype features cameras, radars, as well as LiDAR sensors. Lucid revealed that the sensors are placed in a "halo" structure on the roof of the vehicle, like Alphabet Inc.-owned Waymo’s autonomous vehicles.

Lucid also shared that the company intends to start production at its Arizona facility later this year, with the company targeting a San Francisco Bay Area launch for the Robotaxi service sometime in 2026, Lucid said. The Robotaxi will also rely on Nvidia Corp.’s DRIVE AGX Thor technology, which is a part of the chipmaker's DRIVE Hyperion platform.

Lucid's Robotaxi Operations
The company aims to deploy over 20,000 Gravity Robotaxis across multiple cities in the U.S. over the next five years. The Robotaxis are expected to be available to customers via the Uber app.

Seats 6 passengers contrasted to Tesla's inconvenient 2 passenger shit-show.

And unlike Tesla, Lucid's Robotaxi is actually level-4 autonomous.

[zen222]

Waymo’s Robo-Taxi Lead Widens as Tesla Plays Catch-Up in the Autonomous Race
https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/01/06/waymos-robo-taxi-lead-widens-as-tesla-plays-catch-up-in-the-autonomous-race/



Waymo’s real-world advantage in miles driven and cities approved gives Alphabet a material lead over Tesla in autonomous ride-hailing deployment.

Regulatory approval for robo-taxis remains a city-by-city process, favoring companies with longer operating histories and broader municipal relationships.

Waymo’s platform-agnostic strategy allows partnerships with multiple global automakers, potentially accelerating adoption beyond Tesla’s single-brand ecosystem.

[zen222]

Tesla 'faces increased competition' in autonomy race with Nvidia entering market
https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-elon-musk-face-increased-competition-autonomy-race-nvidia-others/



Tesla and CEO Elon Musk face more competition in their humanoid robot efforts, electric vehicles and autonomous driving coming out of the CES conference in Las Vegas this week, according to Morgan Stanley. TSLA shares angled lower before Thursday's stock market open.

Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco wrote late Wednesday that with Nvidia announcing its own autonomous vehicle AI, known as Alpamayo, legacy automakers can keep up with Tesla in autonomous vehicle, or AV, technology.

"TSLA faces increased competition in not only humanoids and EVs but also AVs in the global race toautonomy," Percoco wrote Wednesday.

Hell, even Ford is getting into the autonomous driving market:

Ford's Tesla FSD Competitor? Automaker To Offer 'Eyes-Off' Technology In 2028 With $30,000 EV
https://finviz.com/news/270244/fords-tesla-fsd-competitor-automaker-to-offer-eyes-off-technology-in-2028-with-30000-ev

Ford Eyeing 2028 Launch With Affordable EV
The Michigan-based automaker will offer the technology in 2028 via the company's Universal EV Platform, Ford said in an official statement released on Wednesday. The platform will underpin the company's $30,000 EV and will offer "L3 eyes-off driving" by 2028, the company said.

Ford also announced that developing the autonomous technology in-house will also make it more affordable for customers. The company stated that its AI assistant, available on the Ford and Lincoln apps, is capable of analyzing pictures and "Ford-specific data" with "real-world needs."

"A rollout will begin in early 2026 and will reach up to 8 million customers, with a native in-vehicle experience starting in 2027," the automaker stated. It also shared that the company's "vehicle brain," which is a central chip, can help Ford enable "a single, powerful module that unifies infotainment, ADAS, audio, and networking."

[zen222]

"Remember when Elon Musk predicted that there would be thousands of Optimus robots at Tesla factories by the end of 2025?"

Optimus Schmoptimus - Boston Dynamics' humanoid robot is already in mass production
https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/06/boston_dynamics_atlas_production

Atlas will be deployed to Hyundai and Google facilities this year
CES 2026 Remember when Elon Musk predicted that there would be thousands of Optimus robots at Tesla factories by the end of 2025? Well, that didn't happen, but competitor Boston Dynamics has just announced that its humanoid robot, Atlas, is going to the big time.

Not only is Boston Dynamics beginning commercial production of the final version of Atlas, but it's also solidified plans to deploy tens of thousands of Atlas units at Hyundai Motor Group manufacturing facilities. Hyundai, Boston Dynamics' majority shareholder, will start with deployment of Atlas at its Robot Metaplant Application Center in the coming months. Boston Dynamics noted that Hyundai's $26 billion investment in US manufacturing announced last year will also include a robotics factory able to produce 30,000 bots a year, many of which will presumably be Atlas units based on its context in the Atlas press material.

In addition to its planned Hyundai deployments this year, Boston Dynamics also announced a partnership with Google DeepMind at CES that will see the pair working out how to integrate Gemini Robotics AI foundation models into Atlas to, according to Boston Dynamics, "give the robot greater cognitive capabilities." 


An Atlas prototype conducting part sequencing work at a Hyundai factory as part of earlier proof of concept work 

Those two commitments mean that all the Atlas units slated for production this year are spoken for, but Boston Dynamics noted it's planning to add additional customers in early 2027. 

You may recall Tesla AI Day 2021, when Elon Musk embarrassingly trotted out a guy in a morph suit to demonstrate his dream of humanoid robots able to serve as replacements for human labor. By the following year, Optimus hadn't advanced all that much. Fast-forward to 2025, and Musk was predicting Optimus version 3 prototyped by the end of the year. 

Not only did that not happen, but Musk's claim Tesla would produce 5,000 to 10,000 Optimus robots in 2025 butted up hard against the embarrassing reality that Optimus isn't only behind the curve, but likely doesn't have any autonomous capabilities at all. 



Atlas, on the other hand, is now in production and has software that allows it to not only be tele-operated via VR or controlled by a tablet, but also lets it function autonomously. 

Tesla didn't respond to questions for this story. ®

[zen222]

Tesla's competition just keeps pulling further and further ahead:

Waymo Unveils Updated 'Ojai' Robotaxi Minivan Built In Collaboration With Zeekr
https://finviz.com/news/270291/waymo-unveils-updated-ojai-robotaxi-minivan-built-in-collaboration-with-zeekr

Alphabet Inc.'s autonomous cab unit Waymo has unveiled the updated version of its Robotaxi, built in collaboration with Chinese automaker Zeekr, following a 2021 partnership.

Ojai Robotaxi Revealed
The company revealed the Robotaxi minivan, dubbed Ojai [pronounced OHAAY], at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2026 on Wednesday. Waymo revealed that the company is integrating its new generation technology into the minivan at its Arizona facility, with testing for the vehicle underway in the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, Phoenix and Las Vegas.

The vehicle uses Waymo's new 6th-gen hardware:
• 13 cameras
• 6 radars
• 4 LiDARs
• Heaters, wipers and sprayers for sensors to keep them clean

Waymo's London Expansion, $10 Billion Funding
The reveal comes as Waymo has been looking to expand its services internationally, with the company eyeing an expansion into London. The company announced it would be working with its local fleet operations partner, Moove, and seeking the regulatory approvals to operate Robotaxis in London.

The Tesla Inc. rival is reportedly also seeking to raise more than $10 billion in funding at an over $100 billion valuation. It's worth noting that Waymo firmly remains in pole position in the U.S. Robotaxi race, completing over 14 million paid robotaxi rides last year.

Zeekr's US Debut?
Meanwhile, Zeekr, backed by Chinese automaker Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd., is reportedly mulling an entry into the U.S. market in the near future. Geely, which has a majority stake in Swedish automaker Volvo, which in turn owns Polestar Automotive, has a production facility in South Carolina. The facility could come in handy for its U.S. ambitions.