Replies to post #443634 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[TastyTheElf]

Sleven if they had the ability to pay, I would agree with you. If it were Teva, who is huge, it would be different.

Your number is over $10 billion, but the precise number up there becomes irrelevant. This company only has a $5bn market cap. A judgment against them in the low billions would force a bankruptcy filing. Again, I've said it a hundred times, see Pennzoil v Texaco back in the 1980s.

And incidentally, the second it becomes clear what is going to happen to Hikma? That market cap falls from $5bn to $1bn.

There's a limit, ultimately, to what we can get out of these guys.

[Denisk]

Sleven & TTF :I think in order to determine how money it cost Amarin over the years, we need to look at the 3 following Facts & their timeline:

1. The Reduce it Trial results: The full paper, titled "Cardiovascular Risk Reduction with Icosapent Ethyl for Hypertriglyceridemia," was simultaneously presented at the American Heart Association Scientific Sessions in Chicago. The print version of the article was published in the New England Journal of Medicine on January 3, 2019. In March 2019 Amarin stock price fluctuated between $410-$465 per share.
2. The key U.S. District Court decision in Nevada against Amarin, ruling its patents for the heart drug Vascepa invalid due to obviousness, took place in March 2020, with the ruling publicly announced around March 30th, when Nevada-based Judge Miranda Du made the decision in favor of generic drug makers Reuters.
3. Hikma first commercialized its generic version of Vascepa (icosapent ethyl) in the U.S. around late 2020, following FDA approval in May 2020, despite facing patent challenges and delays from original maker Amarin, with reports indicating a launch in November 2020 after legal hurdles were cleared.

Over the past 5 years Amarin Sales went down $1.288 B from the $600 million revenue in 2020. Now even at AMARIN current cost of sales % of 55%, that is a total gross profit decrease of $579 million which Amarin is 100% is entitled to recoup as part of a Jury decision or a settlement. In addition to the above AMRN is entitled to recoup their legal expenses incurred from outside firms as well as internal legal representation of approximately 25% or another $144 million (lawyers are not cheap). Now this does not even include any punitive damages …, etc.
Therefore, IMHO Amarin cannot accept any settlement for less than $725 million or go to trial and let the jury decide.
I am not worried one bit or concerned with Hikma ability to fork out this money and going bankrupt as I estimate they have at least close to $300 million in cash and $1.1 billion in accounts receivable (just from looking at their June 30 balance sheet).