Amarin/hikma/settlement/trial-??? value??? We need to consider things from different perspectives /scenarios assuming we get past the SC which is almost certain Summary judgement -not going to happen -this will go to trial -judge Andrews granting summary judgement-???? no way Trial or settlement ? What would Hikma offer ? Leave market yes -value 50million maybe -100m?no chance -settlement benefit trial risk out for both parties yes some cash on settlement Amarin and one generic out Amarin will prefer trial - ??? evidence seemingly strong on infringement -value much greater from jury -200mill -250 m -will they go bigger most unlikely -but no cash in bank because of appeal process lasting many years -and or Hikma unable to pay ?? Hikma would leave market yes- The real achievable benefit from trial would be as Sleven has simply explained getting an outcome as to all generics out as per approach adopted in gsk v Teva -possibility But reality of trial success It’s a no significant cash reward for years scenario otherwise Whilst Hikma are on the run we must look at outcomes that are possible /likely It is on any view positive for Amarin but key to price movement remains on quarterly profitable performance -and other catalysts also possible Alm
As I said awhile back, Barclays will finally have something useful to do.
Because the relevant calculations now aren't about how much the damages could be -- whatever they are, it's more than Hikma could ever pay.
The relevant calculations are either (1) what can Hikma afford and still be a viable going concern, or (2) what level of damages is Amarin likely to recover in a Hikma Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
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