Well too generous odds as kept stipulating. Now we have more information and so a new prior to reset the Bayesian inference of approval chances that have clearly gone down - unfortunate but true!
One other thing I have also repeatedly said is that Anavex should have initiated the confirmatory trial they said they would - and that is now highly likely to come home to roost for at least 3 years!
What are your odds on approval now if you ever had any or have now?
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