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tedpeele

11/13/25 12:13 PM

#225751 RE: StevenDice #225750

I agree re NLM and Anthony Yu as positive. Agree also about the value of the PIC.

But given the history of the company I'm siding with the consensus on a plasmonic PIC, which is that scalability isn't until 2032...I don't know if you saw the table image I posted on that a day or two ago.

One would think that if they really have demonstrated the robustness they claim and that the main industry concerns have been met they would at least get a couple of Stage 3 partners that aren't plasmonic.

Three sources have told me that there is no way this PR is talking about Nokia, but none will provide the evidence or even an explanation for how they got the evidence. Do I trust them? Do I trust that they didn't misunderstand something? They are strangers on the internet. I gotta go with more concrete evidence esp when 2 of the sources have been pretty far off on projections in the past.

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tedpeele

11/14/25 11:34 AM

#225779 RE: StevenDice #225750

Steven: AI weighs in on Nov-4 collaboration:

After many queries and clarifications, chat gpt weighed in. I must preface by saying it did not look at the issue of whether the language meant current Global Fortune 500 as implied, or not:

Stage-3 Polariton/Plasmonic Program Customer

Estimated probability: 45–50%


*AMF referenced as an existing foundry partner; incremental AMF work aligns with prior Polariton platform runs.

*Stage-3 designation fits a mature program preparing for pilot fabrication or platform readiness.

*Could be a customer leveraging the Polariton/plasmonic EO-polymer platform.

*Timeline and language are consistent with Stage-3 plasmonic program development.



Stage-3 Tier-1 Asian Customer Progressing from Stage-2

Estimated probability: 40–45%


*Stage-2 in late July/early August aligns with 3–6 month duration plausible Stage-3 by Nov?4.

*Denver lab activity in Stage-2 involved internal testing, polymer application, and design validation.

*Likely no involvement of AMF at Stage-2, so incremental AMF work in Nov 4 likely refers to prior platform-level development, not this customer.

*Consistent with a natural Stage-2 Stage-3 progression.


Non-Plasmonic SOH Customer Independent of Polariton/AMF

Estimated probability: 10–15%


*PR mentions “silicon photonics PICs integrated with Perkinamine® polymers” — broad enough to allow non-plasmonic interpretations.

*Could be an independent customer validating EO polymer on their own modulators.

*Less likely due to reference to AMF incremental work.

*Absence of “plasmonic” language is not strong evidence against plasmonics, since Stage-3 plasmonic programs have longer timelines and shareholder communications may avoid signaling delays.


Summary:

Most likely scenarios: either a Stage-3 customer leveraging the Polariton/plasmonic platform at AMF, or the Stage-3 Tier-1 Asian customer advancing from Stage-2.

Non-plasmonic independent customer scenario is less likely.

Probability of involving plasmonic EO-polymer integration remains substantial.


I am still awaiting feedback from the company.

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