Replies to post #796662 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[hankmanhub]

Way too low. I know you are a solid long, so I will not accuse you of soft bashing. But if you were anyone else, that is what I would suspect - trying to keep expectations low in the last moments.

[seekinganswers]

🤣
Hilarious

[DJPele]

Boooooooo

(I agree with you though)

[Investor082]

No wonder you are a naive bag holder! LOL! ;)

Blackberry was once valued at $70-80B market cap (around 2008), but then valued under $10B just a couple of years later.

In big pharma world, study Biogen & GSK (from 2014-2015 to 2021-2022) as examples. Despite securing new milestones and regulatory approvals, the market cap got cut in half or more few years later given the change in sentiment, leadership mistrust, pressure from big institutional or activist investors, etc.

After all, it often becomes a supply, demand, trust & sentiment game.

Enjoy the endless dilution in pennies in 2026 and beyond. You deserve it! ;)

[manibiotech]

That's sensible evaluation . I am actually surprised to say that my expectation is higher than yours ..:) , not in 1-2 days but in short time . To maintain the gains however we will need additional concrete news and not "wait for our next update or filing"

[WideEyed]

Sentiment_Stocks,

Since you’re able to say what the stock price should be immediately after approval, what do you think the stock price will be at the end of 2026 and how many patients will Sawston make DCVax-L for by the end of 2026?

[JFR161162]

$3B-$5B valuations make way more sens for an approved cell therapies.

Expect uplisting soon after approval then index inclusion (biotech index's + ETFs ~250M shares) + 3B naked short shares could drive the stock > $5. 

[beartrap12]

Senti, I don't see a multiple applied to your pricing of NWBO! Thanks for doing the math for us. Now we can project the price at a fair multiple. I think it's very hard (impossible?) to rule out a multiple even on the first day after MHRA decision. I believe there are many investors waiting on approval to get in and they know NWBO's forward capabilities to dominate the cancer market.
I expect a conservative multiple of 10 within a few weeks/months, which would bring your $.96 to $1.20 price on approval to $9.60 to $10.20. Even with a very, very conservative multiple of 5, the price would be $4.80 to $5.10. I realize we may not end up there (after a likely (?) spike) on day one, and I think that's actually what you're projecting but we should soon afterward if buying by new investors, including small funds, is sustained.
Also, I think all longs believe management will release good news along with MAA decision, if not a slew of good news...which is why it's very hard to price where NWBO share price will end up the day of (potential) approval. Let's not forget that the price could be kicked to the stratosphere by short covering and anticipation of income, though only in a spike. Longs should be aware that a spike is possible, with the price dropping rapidly afterward to a fairer price. I have to say, I haven't ruled out the possibility that continued short pressure may result in a suppressed price until we begin to show profits. To avoid suppressed price, we need management to give us some immediate guidance on where we are now and where we will be in the next 6 months. I'm hoping they immediately tell us where we are with EDEN readiness, how many patients we can handle now and in the next months with or without EDEN, and how much income Advent is currently making, including income from other projects.
Still, I don't see it dropping to the base level you are projecting (unless shorts are successful). I think analysts will quickly price it at a forward multiple more in line with one-year projections. What that will be, we can only hope.
Thanks, Senti, for your math. I agree that it's good to remind ourselves what the base price should be, but I hope (believe) it will be higher on approval in the UK.
I think we'll know soon!

[dennisdave]

Market Cap on May 11, 2022 at high of day (HOD): $.939 x 984,247,092 shares = $924,208,019

and that was not even the all time market cap high in NWBO's existence. The ATH market cap was in oct 2020 at an intraday $2.1 stock price with 650 million O/S (if Im correct, please correct me if Im wrong here), is about a $1.3 billion market cap. But to be fair, that was an enormous short squeeze which I do not see happening anymore.

[martyDg]

Don’t worry about the share price on or after approval day. Just think about what excuses the cultists will make in Q1 2026 when approval is nowhere in sight and the company still just says, “update will be on the approval.”