Senti, I don't see a multiple applied to your pricing of NWBO! Thanks for doing the math for us. Now we can project the price at a fair multiple. I think it's very hard (impossible?) to rule out a multiple even on the first day after MHRA decision. I believe there are many investors waiting on approval to get in and they know NWBO's forward capabilities to dominate the cancer market.
I expect a conservative multiple of 10 within a few weeks/months, which would bring your $.96 to $1.20 price on approval to $9.60 to $10.20. Even with a very, very conservative multiple of 5, the price would be $4.80 to $5.10. I realize we may not end up there (after a likely (?) spike) on day one, and I think that's actually what you're projecting but we should soon afterward if buying by new investors, including small funds, is sustained.
Also, I think all longs believe management will release good news along with MAA decision, if not a slew of good news...which is why it's very hard to price where NWBO share price will end up the day of (potential) approval. Let's not forget that the price could be kicked to the stratosphere by short covering and anticipation of income, though only in a spike. Longs should be aware that a spike is possible, with the price dropping rapidly afterward to a fairer price. I have to say, I haven't ruled out the possibility that continued short pressure may result in a suppressed price until we begin to show profits. To avoid suppressed price, we need management to give us some immediate guidance on where we are now and where we will be in the next 6 months. I'm hoping they immediately tell us where we are with EDEN readiness, how many patients we can handle now and in the next months with or without EDEN, and how much income Advent is currently making, including income from other projects.
Still, I don't see it dropping to the base level you are projecting (unless shorts are successful). I think analysts will quickly price it at a forward multiple more in line with one-year projections. What that will be, we can only hope.
Thanks, Senti, for your math. I agree that it's good to remind ourselves what the base price should be, but I hope (believe) it will be higher on approval in the UK.
I think we'll know soon!
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