If rejected, it will drop to between $3.50 and $5.85 depending on the reasoning and the request of how to move forward. If they can move forward without the failed endpoint as an endpoint but require a larger trial it will be around $5
The ADL endpoint is not an EMA requirement for an early AD trial because, in early AD, functioning is not impaired enough to demonstrate the disease to statistical significance.
If not meeting statistical significance of one of its primary endpoints is a deal breaker the EMA would not have encouraged the company to submit for approval and then accept its application since it was a well known fact.
Well, no, the PPS will not drop below $1. If it did then all of us would be buying hand over fist. Might go to $4 +/- 50 cents, IMO, if there is a rejection. The cure to rejection would be running a confirmatory trial and running the 3-71 trials. (It is so frustrating that they did not already run the confirmatory trial.)
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