Replies to post #503691 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[MrBobbob]

There are about 7 million Alzheimer’s patients in Europe.

Once they find out there is a daily pill with few, if any, side effects that is highly likely to slow, stop, or even reverse progression, they will not care whether approval is conditional or not. Virtually all will want Blarcasimine.

To claim that CMA will result in a share price of only $15 to $20 is absurd. That would equate to market cap of only $1.3B to $1.7B for a blockbuster drug that will eventually be approved worldwide. Not to mention, other potential blockbusters under development.

Of course CMA would require additional expenses impacting the bottom line and share price, as well, but certainly not to that extent. And don’t forget tens of millions of shares that were shorted will have to be purchased. The risk to the shorts of a buyout is astronomical. They will have to cover no matter what kind of approval.

[boi568]

Jesse has not said he's been told that and, in fact, posted on Stocktwits he first predicted this on SOTC in 2023. There is no inside information.

[catdaddy]

Your insistence that Mayo’s position had to come from the company is garbage. Makes those with any wisdom question all you espouse.

[Investor2014]

I must have missed a detail somewhere, when did Mayo specifically say that a switch to CMA has occurred?

As far as I could tell it is an inference from all that is known, which I have also come to without ever speaking to anyone associated with Anavex. He just didn’t want to write the full reasoning here knowing that it would only attract Japanese clown emojis and worse. Obviously also cause a drop in donations cause they are reserved for WGT assurances.

I would have thought an ex-biotech executive with lots of investing experience could only come to the same conclusion - and then again thinking back to the EXCELLENCE situation maybe not.

[sab63090]

Hoskuld

I know you have mentioned those negatives fairly recently and prior to Mayo's thinking that a CMA is possible, but it was a change from your prior positive posts! Certainly you, I, and others can change their opinions, but I understand your reasoning of the CMA having an impact on the price. No large Big Pharma wants to absorb all of the costs and risks, so their "take" would be larger if it's a CMA instead of a full approval.

As I have often mentioned, I listen to those that make sense; actually I have even recommended Kund's posts here and there and I certainly know that he dislikes Missling for whatever reason he has! I also respect Investor who supplies more logic than most and Doc328, also....both exceptional and BOTH provide links, etc. to explain their reasoning (which I don't always agree with)....but I am a human and make mistakes!