Replies to post #500661 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Hoskuld]

Sell the news? Because AVXL's market cap is wildly over-inflated now? LOL I don't think so. If approved then even in the EU blarcasemine is a lock for over $1b in annual sales, and the likelihood that a precious voucher is granted by the FDA - or at least a green light to file an NDA - is pretty high. $30-$50 seems right to me but it will at least break $20.

[Steady_T]

The history is that good news usually results in a price decline. You can ascribe whatever reason why that happens that you like.

I would not be surprised if after approval the shorts made a strong effort after a day or two to drive the SP down. As far as Anavex is concerned it looks like Anavex will be able to monetize an approval pretty quickly and that should drive the SP higher.

[Molleone]

You are right, there is no garentee that SP will Explode on approval, despite the need for cns drug. I saw it last with OCUP, now IRD, which got a simple eye medicine approved, with 100 mill potential patients a year ( long story). IF the shorts make an effort after approval, then with luck, they can control the SP for a While. It takes time for Blarcamesine to ramp up sales volume for several reasons already postede many times by many.

[baltimorebullet]

I'll take the over on this one.
Alzheimer's has brand recognition, like Coca-Cola and the Nike swoosh.
It has no borders and people around the world need not think too hard of someone in their circle who is greatly affected by the disease.
News travels at lightning speed these days, and a new Alzheimer's drug, safe and in pill form, seems unlikely to go unnoticed IMHO.
I also think filing in the UK, Australia and Canada, maybe even Middle East or Asia, will be a far bigger catalyst then is currently thought.

I've also been pondering lately if R.F.K. Jr. has some type of emergency power to approve a drug or can President Trump do so via Executive order.
Would seem a big win for their healthcare agendas.

[Doc328]

Big jumps or drops after news usually occur when the news itself (not just that there is a catalyst) is unexpected. So for example SMMT released highly anticipated key data at WCLC last week. The drug was expected to perform the same in European descent as Asian but the data was nuanced (probably almost as good but not quite --- yet survival data was immature and could look better (or worse) next year). The SP dropped 25% as trial news worse than WS expected. I remember when Acadia got trofinetide approval - first in class and A273 at least a year behind - and yet price moved down 5%. Approval was >90% baked into SP but the realization that now they need to market a poorly tolerated drug with limited benefit kicks in.

With a share price of 9-10, AVXL is priced closer to MAA withdrawal with need for an additional trial, not for success. If WS felt conditional approval or full approval was most probable, the SP would likely be at least 20, and if complete approval was most probable, then even higher. WS interest in a stock and its potential for large pop or drop, to an extent, can be gauged by option price IV. IV is now about 100 (vs typical 75) but was briefly >500 before the highly anticipated CTAD 2022. There is still a couple months for IV to climb (and unless MAA withdrawn shortly, I expect it will) as we are probably still 2 months from MAA withdrawal vs regulatory success/failure time. I would expect a very large jump in SP (>$40) if full marketing authorization occurs and the fantasy of a short bonfire might even come to pass as there is no chance for the shorts to fight the influx of new investors. A conditional approval will still cause a price jump as the market is huge and $20-30 (depending on terms) is probable and shorts may even try to fight the pop in SP but it stays higher than now. Failure for approval (which would be due to limited proof of efficacy not because of a safety flaw) will put the price at $4-5 --- only a 50% drop because this outcome is partially priced in. New investors won't enter.