Given the oral nature of Blar vs. IV's, brain bleeds, MRI need this will not only have high demand but big pharma, with declining patent protection on many current drugs (PFE eg) would love to partner or save the expense of research and buyout Anavex. They may wait until an FDA approval but even EMA nod presents a powerful takeover scenario. At many, many multiples of current, short beaten down SP. If not for shorts we would be well over $20 pre-EMA decision.
A conditional approval will still cause a price jump as the market is huge and $20-30 (depending on terms) is probable
In the CMA scenario, which terms do you think EMA is most likely to set? Broad vs subgroup label, confirmatory trial burden, and monitoring requirements could mean the difference between $20 or closer to $30.