Replies to post #498294 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[12x]

I don't think WS is attributing much of the market cap to Schizo.

Not much market cap for Schizo. Based on CGPT estimates on the scenarios you listed, the current attribution looks something like this:

-Excellent (>8-point PANSS, ~10% prob): ~$1B / +$10
-Good (6–8 pts, ~15% prob): ~$300M / +$3
-Anything else: $0

MAA approval (vs just next step in the process) would be huge but probably not in 2025 (imo unlikely at any time unless another P3).

Within MAA outcomes, what do you think of the likelihood of a conditional approval (CMA) as oppose to an outright rejection here? In CMA scenario, patients gain access to Blarcamesine, while EMA still get the large confirmatory trial (essentially a P3).

On timing: AVXL’s MAA review has been tracking Pridopidine’s path quite closely. For reference:

Pridopidine: 120d (8/15/24) ? LoQ (12/9/24) ? 121d (4/8/25) ? LoI (5/22/25) ? Oral Explanation (7/22/25) ? CHMP opion (7/25/25).

Blarcamesine: 120d (12/27/24) ? LoQ (4/22/25) ? 121d (7/21/25) ? LoI (Sep ’25) ? Oral Explanation (Nov ’25) ? CHMP opinion ([b]Nov ’25) ? possible EMA approval (Jan ’26) if positive.

[Investor2014]

Last time I saw a fully completed and strong Batman pattern was late November 2018 - so if history repeats we are looking at $8 surge over the next several years!!!

That is of course if we don't have a binary event either up or down. The possibility of a sideways price action also exists as one of the tracks - something to sit and closely watch for updating the charts!