Binary events will always take precedence to any chart pattern. Though a little different appearance, the Batman sign can be traded like a double top. I agree that $4 would only occur if MAA is withdrawn and schizo TLD is a complete bust. I don't think WS is attributing much of the market cap to Schizo. MAA approval (vs just next step in the process) would be huge but probably not in 2025 (imo unlikely at any time unless another P3)
The MOA of 3-71 overlaps with BMS/Karuna drug Cobenfy so excellent results will be nicely rewarded. I think mixed results (that would be nuanced in the PR to appear positive) will not get minimal reward. I think odds of a good P2 readout is reasonable - about 10% excellent results (in line with 8+ points reduction in the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) total score compared with the placebo that was seen with Cobenfy), 15% good results (6-8 points and p< 0.05), 20% nuanced (< 6 points but p<0.05 or > 6 points but p>0.05), 55% < 6 points and p>0.05. A nuanced result could be spun in a PR as patients in the P3 KarXT studies were not on concurrent therapy vs 3-71 allowing 3-71 as add-on (this is possibly a design flaw in the A371 P2 that could come back to haunt Missling). Anything worse will be hard to spin when Cobenfy is already out
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