Dennisdave, an update to my previous post.
Flipper found the SurVaxM Survive trial protocol that has some actual numbers. The IA was at 71 events and triggered in Jan 25. The final analysis (primary completion) is at 141 events. That may or may not have happened.
I still do not understand why Flipper thinks they need to publish final results by 1 year from the estimated primary completion. What we will see is the record being update to show the actual primary completion, and they have one year from then. Though more likely in a paper within about 6 months.
As a side note (as none of this matters to the -L MAA), his numbers do effect my rough estimates a bit. They now look better for SurVaxM, and I will change my opinion to neutral. Though I am still convinced the placebo arm will do well (MOS 20+ months). It is for that reason I think the trial could well fail.
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