Wednesday, August 13, 2025 5:57:04 AM
Re: SurVaxM
I am very skeptical of it. If I had to bet, I would go with failure. Based on 2 facts.
First, the early data was not nearly as good as it sounds as their selection criterion is very selective, more so than -L's.
Second, the time to first IA is not very long. As we do not know all the facts, there is enough margin of error that it can still prove effective, but getting tight. And from my experience, most attempts to play the game of guessing results based on event trimings end up overly optimistic.
My main point was that the "estimated" primary completion date is meaningless. That it was way off is something that almost every long trial run outside of BP has in common.
I am very skeptical of it. If I had to bet, I would go with failure. Based on 2 facts.
First, the early data was not nearly as good as it sounds as their selection criterion is very selective, more so than -L's.
Second, the time to first IA is not very long. As we do not know all the facts, there is enough margin of error that it can still prove effective, but getting tight. And from my experience, most attempts to play the game of guessing results based on event trimings end up overly optimistic.
My main point was that the "estimated" primary completion date is meaningless. That it was way off is something that almost every long trial run outside of BP has in common.
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