Replies to post #838529 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[Rodney5]

Again the unknown at this time is how much shareholders equity will the treasury steal? Based on a per share price Re-IPO onto the NYSE:

60/40 split of this combined valuation allocates @ $277.78 per share re-IPO

Fannie
$166.67 to the 60% portion
Freddie
$111.11 to the 40% portion.

Fannie
$166.67 minus 79.9% = $33.50
$166.67 minus 90% = $16.66

Freddie
$111.11 minus 79.9% = $22.33
$111.11 minus 90% = $11.11

The above calculation expands from previous estimates. Link:

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=176548504

[contrarian bull]

I think that people are missing the point. 
 This is not really an IPO. The government is just exercising 15% of the warrants they already have.  
It's not a capital raise for f&f.  It's going to the US treasury to help pay for the US budget. 
It confirms that the government plans to eventually exercise all of their warrants.
The good news is the current shareholders' stock is expected to be worth 20% of $500 billion and that's significantly higher than Friday's close.
Before they can sell any shares they must stop the steal and restore dividends - which is also a good thing for both commons and juniors. 

[Donotunderstand]

repeating
For example, with 1.8 billion shares: Low end price per share = $225 \text{ billion} / 1.8 \text{ billion shares} \ approx $125 \text{ per share} $ High end price per share = $240 \text{ billion} / 1.8 \text{ billion shares} \approx $133 \text{ per share}

I assume - with some confidence having been a broker for 20 years --- that the first IPO or call it SPO - who cares ----- will have to -- again will have to - in the prospectus - note an anticipated number of outstanding shares in 1 2 3 4 5 years.

Without that information - - no buyer knows what % of the company and its profits it is buying if it buys say 1 share of a 1B offering

1. My gut follows the number if not the logic and its assumptions - that the GOV will want to Issue about 4B new shares of FNMA over say 3 years - minimum.

2. And to gain a high day one price the GOV will announce that the LP/SP obligation is zero or very small

3. Based on the math of others for different scenarios ---- a wipe out of the original warrants and the LP/SP with an announced intent have 5B FNMA shares outstanding by 2028 --- the PPS for the issued shares and our 1B current shares will be in the $40 zone

(no one - no one - knows what the GOV will do - and the GOV has more options available that beat us up then help us ---- but the simplicity of kill the LP/SP and Kill the existing warrants but (somehow) announce 5B total shares is their goal - may rule the day - as that is a ton of cash for GOV ---- just for FNMA (without Freddie). DJT may prefer to say all of the 4B new shares will be offered while he is POTUS