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Sunday, August 10, 2025 10:43:15 AM
For example, with 1.8 billion shares: Low end price per share = $225 \text{ billion} / 1.8 \text{ billion shares} \ approx $125 \text{ per share} $ High end price per share = $240 \text{ billion} / 1.8 \text{ billion shares} \approx $133 \text{ per share}
I assume - with some confidence having been a broker for 20 years --- that the first IPO or call it SPO - who cares ----- will have to -- again will have to - in the prospectus - note an anticipated number of outstanding shares in 1 2 3 4 5 years.
Without that information - - no buyer knows what % of the company and its profits it is buying if it buys say 1 share of a 1B offering
1. My gut follows the number if not the logic and its assumptions - that the GOV will want to Issue about 4B new shares of FNMA over say 3 years - minimum.
2. And to gain a high day one price the GOV will announce that the LP/SP obligation is zero or very small
3. Based on the math of others for different scenarios ---- a wipe out of the original warrants and the LP/SP with an announced intent have 5B FNMA shares outstanding by 2028 --- the PPS for the issued shares and our 1B current shares will be in the $40 zone
(no one - no one - knows what the GOV will do - and the GOV has more options available that beat us up then help us ---- but the simplicity of kill the LP/SP and Kill the existing warrants but (somehow) announce 5B total shares is their goal - may rule the day - as that is a ton of cash for GOV ---- just for FNMA (without Freddie). DJT may prefer to say all of the 4B new shares will be offered while he is POTUS
Recent FNMA News
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