Replies to post #496026 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[poguemahone]

Yes (as in too naive/optimistic).

George will probably think you’re being too conservative.

[Hoskuld]

Yes. Blarcamesine does not move the clinical needle in 65%-75% of those patients but is a must have for 25%-35% of that population. Still huge numbers.

[kund]

You’re on the right track, but you forgot the 35 million patients in Asia. Misleading will be the richest person in the world—he’ll surpass Musk. Word on the street is that Musk, through his mom via the model connection, is planning a big investment in Anavex.

[DKB55]

There are 7 million Alzheimer's patients in the EU and 7 million in the U.S..
Assuming that Blarcamesine is sold at $10,000.00/patient/year, which is cheap compared to lecanemab ($26,500.00/patient/year), this would result in a revenue of $140bn. P/S ratio of 5 gives you $700bn market cap. Divided by 85mn shares outstanding is a share price of $8,200.00. Am I too naive/optimistic here?

Finally, someone with a more realistic share price prediction. But to fine tune that number in a little closer, lets tweek your numbers a little bit. First of all, the total MAB drug cost per patient will be at least $48000 annually. So being the good guy that Dr. Missling is, he will offer Blarcasamine at a 75% discount to the MABs. So $12000 annual cost per patient, which is, oddly enough, the exact same cost of the block buster weight loss drug Ozempic ???.
Anavex will probably only capture 25% of the 14 million patients you quoted. So, lets see, that only brings in $42 billion annually. And Anavex will probably need to throw 25% of that to a partner to stamp out and distribute those pills, so lets say $31.5 billion annually. Multiply that by 5 and we have a market cap of $157.5 billion which equates to $1853 per share, since Anavex does not need to delute right now.