Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[DKB55]

There are 7 million Alzheimer's patients in the EU and 7 million in the U.S..
Assuming that Blarcamesine is sold at $10,000.00/patient/year, which is cheap compared to lecanemab ($26,500.00/patient/year), this would result in a revenue of $140bn. P/S ratio of 5 gives you $700bn market cap. Divided by 85mn shares outstanding is a share price of $8,200.00. Am I too naive/optimistic here?

Finally, someone with a more realistic share price prediction. But to fine tune that number in a little closer, lets tweek your numbers a little bit. First of all, the total MAB drug cost per patient will be at least $48000 annually. So being the good guy that Dr. Missling is, he will offer Blarcasamine at a 75% discount to the MABs. So $12000 annual cost per patient, which is, oddly enough, the exact same cost of the block buster weight loss drug Ozempic ???.
Anavex will probably only capture 25% of the 14 million patients you quoted. So, lets see, that only brings in $42 billion annually. And Anavex will probably need to throw 25% of that to a partner to stamp out and distribute those pills, so lets say $31.5 billion annually. Multiply that by 5 and we have a market cap of $157.5 billion which equates to $1853 per share, since Anavex does not need to delute right now.