I certainly hope the drug gets approved and AVXL reaches a $20B valuation immediately after CHMP approval — that would be a fantastic outcome. But there are a lot of nuances along the way. The immediate one is whether CHMP grants approval, and if so, under what terms.
If full approval is granted, the market could reprice the stock at 4–5x peak revenue. Assuming $1.825B in peak global revenue, that translates to a $8B valuation, or roughly $80 per share (assuming 100M fully diluted shares).
If approval is conditional and limited to a subgroup (e.g., ABCLEAR2 under a CMA), the market may apply just a 1x multiple, especially if there’s doubt about confirmatory trial success. That would imply a $1.8B valuation, or about $18 per share.
There’s still meaningful upside — but the nature of the approval will likely define the near-term ceiling.
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