Replies to post #496025 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[poguemahone]

$18-$80 SP is a far cry from $1,249 from the WGT group think, but seems a bit more realistic given the variables involved.

[boi568]

I think your revenue figures are ridiculously low.

I forget which think tank -- the one that deals with AD drug revenue projections -- a few years ago estimated an annual patient cost of up to $25K per year for a highly effective AD drug. That price is a bargain compared to the present economic and social costs of the disease.

Although it appears that blarcamesine will not be useful after an AD patient has lost too much mental capacity or is genetically unresponsive, the drug itself, at its peak, will extend the patient population by increasing "time saved" for each new person who develops Alzheimer's. Between the EU and the US (assuming the drug is approved there) we could see up to 10 million patients eligible to benefit from the drug each year. If Anavex gets half the revenues in a partnership and the drug works well, I can see a potential peak market of at least $50B annually.

I could be wrong, of course, but not nearly as wrong as a $1.8B estimate.

[B60611]

LMAO, don’t go full [r-word].

What preposterous nonsense. Your handlers are not getting their monies worth no matter how little they’re paying you.

[Steady_T]

Why would there be doubt about a confirmatory trial, especially if the label restricts it to the 70% of the population that responded most strongly?

Conditional approval means the drug can be marketed. That means real revenues for Anavex.

It seems unlikely that the label would be restrictive in the first place.
Yeah the mutant type (30%) SIGMAR 1 does respond as well as the wild type. What is the other choice for the 30% ? Nothing!

It is a case of some is better than none and the 30% has no other real options.

[sage4]

What a freakin joke.
Do you know what was SP at the close on Friday by the way? Nice try.

[crescentmotor]

If approval is conditional and limited to a subgroup (e.g., ABCLEAR2 under a CMA), the market may apply just a 1x multiple, especially if there’s doubt about confirmatory trial success. That would imply a $1.8B valuation, or about $18 per share.

It's an insult to the term "subgroup" to use that term to describe 70% of the AD patient population. As to your $1.8 billion valuation, you must be clowning around.

[Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes]

🤣"Assuming $1.825B in peak global revenue"🤣

5 million patients x$5000 per patient is more like it.
Peak global revenue of $25 billion.

100m shares
$250 per share.

That of course is excluding approvals for other diseases, and excluding the value of 371 after epic schizo results are released.