Replies to post #495743 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[williamssc]

Pffft, highly unlikely per AI but please maintain your 25%. What matters is Blarcamesine has already shown highly effective against a terrible debilitating unmet need.

[12x]

Is your 25% probability one of the following CGPT scenarios or several combined?

📊 Updated CHMP Outcome Model with Price Targets
Scenario | Probability | Estimated Price Target | Rationale
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A. Full Approval (mITT) | 🔻 0–5% |🔺 $35–40/share | Now effectively off the table due to non-responder harm
B. Subgroup Full Approval (ABCLEAR2 only) | ✅ 50–60%| $22–28/share| Clean benefit-risk; no post-marketing trial; strong M&A/partner appeal
C. Subgroup + Conditional Approval (CMA) | 🟠 25–30%| $18–22/share| Provisional path with confirmatory trial, but clean responder profile
D. Conditional Approval (mITT) | 🔻 5–10% | $15–18/share| Less plausible now; poor benefit-risk in 35%
E. Rejection / Negative Opinion| 🔻 10–20% | $5–7/share | EMA questions enrichment, safety, or trial validity

[crescentmotor]

encourage Anavex to withdraw the MAA

Total nonsense, IMO, that the European regulatory authorities would encourage withdrawal of the MAA based on Blarcamesine only being effective in 70% of the general population when a label restriction could address the issue of bio-negative patients. If the CHMP had your mindset, it never would have accepted the MAA. Your FUD never stops.

[ExtremelyBullishZig]

Of course now the WGT group is onboard with only a specific group being able to use the drug as a positive. I just cannot stop laughing...

[Guzzi62]

Ha-ha, you are funny, soft bashing.

You don't have to be sorry, you can say whatever you want, I am not selling my shares, you have to try harder!

Did you read and actually understood what was written in the link below? Psychiatric times seems trustworthy, you not so much.


https://www.psychiatrictimes.com/view/positive-phase-2b-3-open-label-extension-trial-results-blarcamesine-for-treatment-of-early-alzheimer-disease