Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[12x]

Is your 25% probability one of the following CGPT scenarios or several combined?

📊 Updated CHMP Outcome Model with Price Targets
Scenario | Probability | Estimated Price Target | Rationale
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A. Full Approval (mITT) | 🔻 0–5% |🔺 $35–40/share | Now effectively off the table due to non-responder harm
B. Subgroup Full Approval (ABCLEAR2 only) | ✅ 50–60%| $22–28/share| Clean benefit-risk; no post-marketing trial; strong M&A/partner appeal
C. Subgroup + Conditional Approval (CMA) | 🟠 25–30%| $18–22/share| Provisional path with confirmatory trial, but clean responder profile
D. Conditional Approval (mITT) | 🔻 5–10% | $15–18/share| Less plausible now; poor benefit-risk in 35%
E. Rejection / Negative Opinion| 🔻 10–20% | $5–7/share | EMA questions enrichment, safety, or trial validity