Replies to post #493136 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[skitahoe]

What you suggest is certainly possible; however, the company does not need the funding at this time. I wonder if Missling won't want to take it higher before considering such a move.

The key to a successful partnership is the partner bringing in something more than the cash, so if they're approached by someone who'll be of great benefit in approaching other regulators and bringing their product to market, that could be of interest. Money is nice, but it's been said that they can operate for 4 years without it. I believe they'll have substantial revenue before that with European approval.

As I see it, each month we're closer to that initial approval, I believe it's possible at any time in the future. I think that approval in 9 months or less is around 90%, over 50% that it will be this year. Regardless of when it is, I believe the Analysts $40+ will be exceeded, and better Analysts will raise their forecast levels. If Missling waits these additional months, if he wants a partnership, it could be at $80 or more, instead of the $30 you're proposing. I think there is a good chance he'll wait.

Gary

[Robot14]

While I agree with most of your timeline and PPS forecasts, I can’t see Misslings selling at $150 a share which is about $13.2B MC.
That is $2B less than Karuna was bought for, albeit almost $2B was debt which was absorbed.
A successful 3-71 for schizophrenia alone would be worth the $13B valuation, then add in an approved 2-73 for AD.
We dont need the upfront cash from a partnership, Anavex can afford to be choosy on whom they partner with & terms.
Any buyout should be in the $18B range for around $200 a share, at 90M fully diluted outstanding shares. JMO

[plexrec]

" Plausible?"--you're dreaming !!!!

[Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes]

The company will be partnering with a large company, probably very soon. That company will be probably giving Anavex about $1B for a stake in the company. That stake could happen at $30pps which would value the company at about $2.5B give or take. ......maybe we get the stock up to $50 in the next 25 days - 6 months. With approval we go to $80 and a buyout gets us to $150 in about 12 months give or take a few months. Plausible?

With you on the general scenario, but not the initial partnership payment. $1 billion is a decent figure for just a partnership, no equity. Of course that structure is unlikely, I agree, they will want equity. IMO 10-20% is an reasonable stake for what you are proposing, not 40%, which is nuts for the value here. That would provide the fuel for your $50 in six months. Agree with the $80 on approval, been saying that for a while. The $150 buyout price is plausible, although I would say $150-$200. I would not normally be overthrilled with that, but now tend to favor it with a BP that is aggressively pushing this area, say a Lilly.

[mauismart]

Eli Liilly bought my Verve company recently. I say a partnership happens before 3-71 d as ta release.