QL, if we absolutely knew that by a specific date, say the beginning or end July we'd have an answer from the UK, I believe anticipation would take us to $.50 or more. The problem is, there are no such guarantees. Someone anywhere could tip off someone, word would get out and anticipation would grow, technicians would call it a tell and they'll say that they can always see when something is coming, but I believe it's a stretch, at least some of the time.
A few weeks ago, people thought the Frankfurt exchange halting shares sales almost certainly meant the UK was approving, the share price went to $.40 and I don't believe we ever learned why sales were halted. If they were to do it again, I'd bet we'd move up again. This time we might be right about the reason why.
With the FDA it's sometimes a little easier, there PDUFA date is normally meaningful, but if you're down to the last day it's often a problem, whereas within a few weeks of the date you may get an approval. Generally, anticipation starts creeping into the stock price in the last few weeks prior to the PDUFA date.
The UK and Europe just don't give the same sort of opportunity, their 150 days and 60 day RFI's rarely add up to 210 as we know, depending on where you place the start we're somewhere in the 500's, and counting.
Let's hope we get that tell soon, but don't bet it must happen. I still believe that we could close slightly down the day before approval's announced before the bell. I'll leave it up to the technicians to show us the tell.
Gary
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