When you say you believe something to be true, that means when factoring all possibilities, you believe that will be the outcome. Therefore, it is no longer a 50/50 proposition but now 100% certainty according to your belief. That's why I said if you truly believed that, you would sell. Now if you're saying there's a 51% chance it's being denied but the stock will triple in price, that's an asymmetric return and you would hold. From what you said and what I responded with, there is no way to infer a .60 cap after approval.
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