Hi Bigworld. Sounds like a great trip, and you were wise to have that stop loss on the SVIX :o)
It's been pretty crazy around here. I listened to an interview with Trump's main tariff guru Peter Navarro (who Musk accurately calls a moron, and 'dumber than a sack of bricks'), and the guy is completely delusional. Previously I had only heard the other trade guy, Lighthizer, but the picture is becoming clearer that having countries agree to zero tariffs will not be good enough. Navarro is more focused on the 'non-tariff' factors, like the VAT tax in Europe, and a million other things that countries do to 'cheat'. This guy is 'Trump's brain' when it comes to tariffs, and it sounds like they will never accept a deal with any country until the 'non-tariff' issues are resolved, which will never happen. Only the crashing markets, or a US Congress united against the tariff insanity, will have a chance to end the lunacy. They should have done this one country / region at a time. It's a complete disaster.
That said, if there is somehow a sign of progress, or a delay in the tariffs, etc, then the stock market likely has a big relief rally. That's still the case, but with the completely unrealistic strategy of Trump / Navarro, this thing could drag on forever, putting the world into a dangerous recession, financial crisis, who knows.
Fwiw, after bumping up the stock allocation to 10% (from 1%), I scaled it back down today to 5%. I'd probably have gone lower, except that the remaining portion is now underwater, so will have to wait for a bounce. The TA / charts are screaming 'buy', but the Trump / Navarro 'dimwit duo' will not back down on the tariff insanity until forced to. I was hoping the 'powers that be' / Finance Oligarchy would read them the riot act, but apparently nothing so far.
Anyway, welcome back from your trip :o) A tropical island is probably the only way to escape the current world lunacy, lol.
Bigworld, Good to see the metals and miners rebounding. Silver especially got smacked, but the low $30s seems like a good buying opportunity. Gold dropped for a few days, but looks to be bouncing back fast. And a good day for the miners.
Btw, here's an interview with Frank Giustra from last Fall. Some interesting info on the BIS / Bank for Intl Settlements working with various groups of countries on regional / multi-country CBDCs -
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