Replies to post #2824 on Mining Sector Ideas

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Yes, the metals are the one bright spot, and having a sizable allocation has been an excellent strategy. I started at 10%, which is what Rickards recommends, but it gradually grew over the years to the current 24%. I never intended to get this high, but prices have more than doubled over the past decade. Here's the current allocation -

Stocks ----------- 1%
Bonds ----------- 53%
Cash / T-Bills -- 22%
Metals ----------- 24%


Note - the Bonds are a 3-4 year Treasury ladder (52%), plus an additional 1% allocation in 5 year Treasuries. The puny stock allocation is obviously in need of an increase, but I figure the tariff mess could produce a 9 month downtrend for stocks (a guess), similar to the 2022 bear market. But if Trump scales back his tariff plan then the market gets a reprieve. Once the extent of the tariffs is better known (today?), then will come the retaliatory tariffs, back and forth, etc. So the anguish continues, and then the monthly economic numbers should drive the market's direction (GDP, inflation, unemployment), along with the deterioration in corporate profits. Will these reach 'recession' territory becomes the next question. So I figure 3 lousy quarters (ala 2022), but just a guess. Maybe Drama Queen Don will surprise everyone and pull back from the abyss.



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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Just curious if you are still hanging with the nuclear / uranium plays? I remember you have Cameco (CCJ), which has quadrupled over the last 5 years. I had some of the ETFs like URA, URNM, NLR a few years back during the big runup, but only for a few months, and then chickened out and took modest profits. With the proliferation risks, I figured the US 'powers that be' would try to nix the nuclear power idea, but the need for mega gobs of steady power for data centers and AI appears to have overruled the proliferation risks and waste concerns. And globally, many countries are going full speed ahead with nuclear power. The sector has sold off this year, so any plans to increase or broaden exposure to nuclear? Thanks.


>>> Dow wants to power its Texas manufacturing complex with new nuclear reactors instead of natural gas


AP

by JENNIFER McDERMOTT

March 31, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-wants-power-texas-manufacturing-183503604.html


Dow, a major producer of chemicals and plastics, wants to use next-generation nuclear reactors for clean power and steam at a Texas manufacturing complex instead of natural gas.

Dow's subsidiary, Long Mott Energy, applied Monday to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission for a construction permit. It said the project with X-energy, an advanced nuclear reactor and fuel company, would nearly eliminate the emissions associated with power and steam generation at its plant in Seadrift, Texas, avoiding roughly 500,000 metric tons of planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions annually.

If built and operated as planned, it would be the first U.S. commercial advanced nuclear power plant for an industrial site, according to the NRC.

For many, nuclear power is emerging as an answer to meet a soaring demand for electricity nationwide, driven by the expansion of data centers and artificial intelligence, manufacturing and electrification, and to stave off the worst effects of a warming planet. However, there are safety and security concerns, the Union of Concerned Scientists cautions. The question of how to store hazardous nuclear waste in the U.S. is unresolved, too.

Dow wants four of X-energy's advanced small modular reactors, the Xe-100. Combined, those could supply up to 320 megawatts of electricity or 800 megawatts of thermal power. X-energy CEO J. Clay Sell said the project would demonstrate how new nuclear technology can meet the massive growth in electricity demand.

The Seadrift manufacturing complex, at about 4,700 acres, has eight production plants owned by Dow and one owned by Braskem. There, Dow makes plastics for a variety of uses including food and beverage packaging and wire and cable insulation, as well as glycols for antifreeze, polyester fabrics and bottles, and oxide derivatives for health and beauty products.

Edward Stones, the business vice president of energy and climate at Dow, said submitting the permit application is an important next step in expanding access to safe, clean, reliable, cost-competitive nuclear energy in the United States. The project is supported by the Department of Energy’s Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program.

The NRC expects the review to take three years or less. If a permit is issued, construction could begin at the end of this decade so the reactors would be ready early in the 2030s, as the natural gas-fired equipment is retired.

A total of four applicants have asked the NRC for construction permits for advanced nuclear reactors. The NRC issued a permit to Abilene Christian University for a research reactor and to Kairos Power for one reactor and two reactor test versions of that company's design. It's reviewing an application by Bill Gates and his energy company, TerraPower, to build an advanced reactor in Wyoming.

X-energy is also collaborating with Amazon to bring more than 5 gigawatts of new nuclear power projects online across the United States by 2039, beginning in Washington state. Amazon and other tech giants have committed to using renewable energy to meet the surging demand from data centers and artificial intelligence and address climate change.

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[gfp927z]

The stock market is giving Trump the 'benefit of the doubt' today. But since Trump is waiting until after the stock market closes to reveal his big tariff announcement, that could suggest he expects a negative market response. So higher / broader tariffs than expected? Guess we'll find out.

It's probably safe to say that everyone (in the world) has about had it with the Trump clown show and his 'Drama Queen' antics. It's like having a 2 year old running things --> a 2 year old Caligula (?)







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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Looking at those existing tariff rates against the US (below), Trump is right in saying that we are getting ripped off. These figures reportedly also include other factors in addition to existing tariffs, like the VAT / Value Added Tax in Europe, etc, but should represent a fairly close approximation to what the current barriers are against US exports to those countries.

There are a good number of countries that currently only have 10% imposed on the US (top of list), so those shouldn't be much of a problem. But the others range from 30-60%, and others a ridiculous 60-97%. Beyond the base 10%, Trump is only charging 1/2 of the tariffs % levied against the US, which doesn't sound unreasonable.

Well, now that we know where we stand (the worse case), everything that happens from here on out (tariff-wise) can only be an improvement (ie lower rates than those listed below). So that removes much of the uncertainty. The situation with Mexico and Canada isn't on the list, and presumably will be more fully negotiated in the period ahead (also to lower rates than currently).

I still would have preferred a 1 country at a time approach, but at least we now know the 'worst case', and the rates can only get lower, not any higher than those listed. So once 'digested' by the markets in the days ahead, the main coming news flow driving the financial markets should be -

1) Tariffs - can only get 'better' than the worst case listed below, ie individually negotiated deals producing lower rates.

2) Economic numbers - this is where it gets sticky, since these numbers will likely be deteriorating with each successive monh.

3) Corporate earnings - also dicey as the economy slows.


Country -- Tariff rate against US -- US reciprocal rate

UK ------------------------ 10% - 10%
BRAZIL ------------------ 10% - 10%
CHILE -------------------- 10% - 10%
AUSTRALIA ------------ 10% - 10%
SINGAPORE ----------- 10% - 10%
TURKEY ----------------- 10% - 10%
COLOMBIA ------------- 10% - 10%

ISRAEL ------------------ 33% - 17%
PHILIPPINES ---------- 34% - 17%
EUROPEAN UNION - 39% - 20%
JAPAN ------------------- 46% - 24%
MALAYSIA -------------- 47% - 24%
SOUTH KOREA ------- 50% -- 25%
INDIA --------------------- 52% - 26%
PAKISTAN --------------- 58% - 29%

SOUTH AFRICA ------- 60% - 30%
SWITZERLAND -------- 61% - 31%
INDONESIA ------------- 64% - 32%
TAIWAN ------------------ 64% - 32%
CHINA -------------------- 67% - 34%
THAILAND -------------- 72% - 36%
BANGLADESH -------- 74% - 37%
SRI LANKA ------------- 88% - 44%
VIETNAM --------------- 90% - 46%
CAMBODIA ------------- 97% - 49%



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[gfp927z]

One development to watch is that China, Japan, South Korea are reportedly planning to team up together to jointly respond to Trump's tariffs (excerpt below). If true, it would be ominous to see Japan moving closer to China, and South Korea doing the same. BRICS expansion is bad enough (for the US), but if the US loses Japan to BRICS, we're in deep trouble. Same with Europe. Macron of France has wanted to attend the last several BRICS conferences (2023, 2024), and Trump has been alienating Europe bigtime on multiple levels. Chasing our few remaining allies into the arms of BRICS is extremely dangerous for continued US world dominance, the US dollar reserve system, etc.

>>> Worldwide retaliation to Trump’s plan has already been promised with nations like China, Japan, and South Korea even making plans to team up and jointly respond to Trump’s move. <<<

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=176012059



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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Just curious if you were able to get out of SVIX this afternon? It's possible the stock market finds some support once the panic selling peters out, but as of now the stock futures have tanked and Vix is soaring. It might have gone the other way if Trump had more clearly backed off. But these 'binary events' just seem too unpredictable to bet on imo.

Fwiw, I actually feel somewhat better about the stock market now, since the tariff 'worst case' is now known. If the coming weeks show a stream of negotiated deals at lower rates, the stock market could stabilize and start recovering. The big question then will be the monthly economic numbers and corporate earnings --> how much deterioration is occuring month to month, and can a recession be avoided? Those question will likely drive the markets the rest of the year. The Fed could also step up with some rate cuts.

I'll probably start to gradually nibble back into stocks, depending on how low the entry point gets, and also will watch for Buffett to start buying. But no big moves yet, though maybe a modest 'buy the dip' trade might make sense. 'Play it by ear' looks like the rule right now.



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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Just curious to get your take on the current market and strategy options, etc? Thanks.

Fwiw, I decided to raise the stock allocation a little today, from 1% to 2 1/2%. Still small, but the S+P 500 is nearing 5000, so not far from to the 20% bear market level, and 5000 was one of my pre-determined 'buy' levels (based on the chart). It's hard to force oneself to buy during a market rout like this, but using relatively small amounts makes it easier. I'll probably keep nibbling next week, to get up to a 3% allocation.

One hope is that Trump comes to his senses over the weekend, after getting an earful from the 'finance oligarchy' figures. Unless they (oligarchy) actually want a crash, they'll probably order wayward Don to reverse course. The key with Trump is to find a way he can somehow 'save face', and not look like the village idiot that he is.

On the other hand, nothing might happen over the weekend, and then the carnage continues next week. But already the Nasdaq and Russell are in bear markets (down 23% and 28% respectively), and the S+P 500 is down 17-18%, and it's hard to imagine the 'powers that be' allowing one guy to wreck their whole system. But.. just a guess, and strange things can happen.

I just hope a big financial meltdown isn't what the oligarchy actually wants (?), as part of a bigger strategy. That seems very unlikely though, since the logical 'replacement' would be some kind of vast CBDC system, and they haven't even gotten the 'plumbing' in place here is the US. The time for a deliberate crisis to justify a CBDC takeover won't come for years, since the infrastructure is still in its infancy.

Anyway, my guess is they (powers that be) turn this current mess around, and don't let some 4 x bankrupt moron wreck their entire system. We'll see what happens.



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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, I'd be interesting in your take on that Fox article (below). So they had to tank the stock market to get the 6.5 trillion in Treasuries sold (!) This is off the charts unreal, and not only means QE (Fed buying its own debt) is no longer feasible, but the US has sunk to canabalizing itself to stave off collapse. So the US finally gets its final margin call.

This also means that Treasuries (even T-bills) will soon be no longer safe. So stocks are out, bonds are out, no Treasuries, no T-bills, what's left --> gold, hard assets. Real estate (?) It's highly leveraged / mortgaged in the US, so a big recession means foreclosures skyrocket. Raw land (?) Deep sh*t approaches, and fast..


>>> Here's what Trump is really up to with high-stakes tariff gambit <<<

Full article - https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=176024687

Excerpts -

... In 2025, the U.S. government must refinance $9.2 trillion in maturing debt. Some $6.5 trillion of that comes due by June. That is not a typo—that is a debt wall the size of a small continent...

... By introducing sweeping tariffs, the administration is creating precisely the kind of economic uncertainty that drives investors toward safer assets such as long-term U.S. Treasuries. When markets are spooked, capital exits risk and equity assets (as we see with the stock market collapse) and piles into safe assets, primarily the 10-year U.S. treasury bond. That demand pushes yields lower.

<<<



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