Bigworld, Yes, the metals are the one bright spot, and having a sizable allocation has been an excellent strategy. I started at 10%, which is what Rickards recommends, but it gradually grew over the years to the current 24%. I never intended to get this high, but prices have more than doubled over the past decade. Here's the current allocation -
Stocks ----------- 1%
Bonds ----------- 53%
Cash / T-Bills -- 22%
Metals ----------- 24%
Note - the Bonds are a 3-4 year Treasury ladder (52%), plus an additional 1% allocation in 5 year Treasuries. The puny stock allocation is obviously in need of an increase, but I figure the tariff mess could produce a 9 month downtrend for stocks (a guess), similar to the 2022 bear market. But if Trump scales back his tariff plan then the market gets a reprieve. Once the extent of the tariffs is better known (today?), then will come the retaliatory tariffs, back and forth, etc. So the anguish continues, and then the monthly economic numbers should drive the market's direction (GDP, inflation, unemployment), along with the deterioration in corporate profits. Will these reach 'recession' territory becomes the next question. So I figure 3 lousy quarters (ala 2022), but just a guess. Maybe Drama Queen Don will surprise everyone and pull back from the abyss.
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