Replies to post #2749 on Mining Sector Ideas

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, The April 2 deadline looms, full of angst and uncertainty, so no time to stick one's neck out very far imo. The PCE number came in hot, which adds a LT bearish backdrop to the quicksand. From here on out the monthly numbers should gradually deteriorate (inflation, GDP, employment, etc). As a LT bear, why suddenly go bullish with a big wager (SVIX) ?



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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Just curious if you have seen some of these Candida Auris infections in your hospitals? Thanks.


>>> Dangerous fungus spreading in US hospitals has ‘rapidly increased'

Candida auris poses 'urgent threat' to sick people, says CDC


by Angelica Stabile By Angelica Stabile

Fox News

March 27, 2025


https://www.foxnews.com/health/dangerous-fungus-spreading-us-hospitals-rapidly-increased


CDC on guard over deadly fungus spreading throughout the US

A dangerous fungus spreading among U.S. healthcare systems isn’t slowing down, reports claim.

New research has revealed that Candida auris (C. auris) has spread rapidly in hospitals since it was first reported in 2016.

In March 2023, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported more than 4,000 new clinical cases of C. auris, dubbing it an "urgent antimicrobial (AR) threat."

The fungus can be resistant to multiple antifungal drugs and can cause "life-threatening illness."

C. auris "spreads easily" in healthcare facilities and mostly impacts people who are already sick, the CDC stated on its website.

A new study published in the American Journal of Infection Control on March 17 analyzed clinical cultures of C. auris across the U.S. collected from 2019 to 2023.

The number of clinical cultures increased by 580% from 2019 to 2020, by 251% in 2021, by 46% in 2022, and by 7% in 2023.

"The volumes of clinical cultures with C. auris have rapidly increased, accompanied by an expansion in the sources of infection," concluded the researchers, primarily from the University of Miami.

JoAnna Wagner with the Georgia Department of Public Health shared with local ABC News affiliate WJCL that Georgia, one of the impacted states, has detected more than 1,300 cases as of the end of February.

"Many of the disinfectants that are EPA-registered and historically used by hospitals and medical facilities are not effective against C. Auris," Wagner said.

C. auris is life-threatening to sick individuals, but not a threat to healthy people, according to experts. (iStock)

Dr. Marc Siegel, Fox News senior medical analyst and clinical professor of medicine at NYU Langone, considers C. auris an "emerging problem of great concern," he told Fox News Digital.

"It is resistant to multiple antifungal drugs, and it tends to spread in hospital settings, including on equipment being used on immunocompromised and semi-immunocompromised patients, such as ventilators and catheters," he said.

"Unfortunately, symptoms such as fever, chills and aches may be ubiquitous, and it can be mistaken for other infections."

"Major research" is ongoing to develop new treatments, according to Siegel.

"This is part of a much larger problem of emerging antibiotic resistance in the U.S. and around the world," the physician cautioned.

"At the same time, sterilization and disinfection measures in hospitals can be very helpful."

Healthcare facilities in Georgia are reportedly using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency-certified cleaners designed to attack the fungus.

Although C. auris can cause severe infections with high death rates in sick individuals, it is "not a threat to healthy people," according to the CDC.

Fox News Digital reached out to the lead study author and the Georgia Department of Public Health for comment.

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[gfp927z]

>>> 'Not currently priced in': What Wall Street is saying about Trump's April tariff deadline


Yahoo Finance

by Josh Schafer

March 30, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/not-currently-priced-in-what-wall-street-is-saying-about-trumps-april-tariff-deadline-130002337.html


Stocks have sold off in recent days as investors digested President Trump's latest round of tariffs.

The headlines are expected to intensify in the week ahead, with an April 2 reciprocal tariff deadline that Trump has dubbed "Liberation Day" looming on Wednesday.

The big questions from investors headed into the expected announcements are to what extent does Trump impose levies on trading partners and whether the moves lead to further escalation of the trade war.

"The market is going to have a lot to digest," Veda Partners director of economic policy Henrietta Treyz told Yahoo Finance. "And they're going to see just how forward-looking and long-term these tariffs are, which is not currently priced in."

Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chairman of research at Barclays, said on a call with reporters on Thursday that Trump's recent 25% auto tariffs on foreign made-vehicles were "a bigger deal than the market is making it out to be."

"It is a statement of intent," Rajadhyaksha said. "And at least in my mind, it releases the risk that April 2 is something that markets can't dismiss. I think we will be negatively surprised."

The growing market fear is that worse-than-expected tariffs could weigh on already souring sentiment and eventually slow economic growth. The impact of tariffs has already prompted several Wall Street firms to lower their S&P 500 year-end targets. Barclays recently lowered its target from 6,600 to 5,900, the second-lowest target on the Street.

Should the eventual tariff rate land higher than Barclays' roughly 15% estimate, the firm sees more potential downside risk for stocks and the economy potentially slipping into recession. The possibility of this outcome has Rajadhyaksha telling clients to "be as defensive as possible."

"We are as defensive as I can remember in the last two and a half years," Rajadhyaksha told Yahoo Finance in a separate interview after Thursday's media call.

The economics team at Goldman Sachs also believes markets will be surprised to the downside next week. Goldman Sachs' recent survey of market participants shows investors likely expect a nine percentage point reciprocal tariff rate, per chief political economist Alec Phillips. But Goldman Sachs' team believes the initially proposed rate will be higher, potentially closer to double what market participants expect, Phillips wrote.

"Administration officials have said explicitly that the soon-to-be announced tariff rates are intended as the basis for negotiation, which incentivizes the administration to propose higher rates at the outset," Phillips wrote when explaining why the team sees tariffs coming in higher than the market expects. "This occurred in the recent experience with Canada and Mexico tariffs, which twice involved a steep tariff rate that was rescinded mostly or entirely after a few days."

Still, given that policy uncertainty has been a key factor weighing on the market during the recent drawdown, some analysts are hopeful that further details on the path ahead could calm markets.

"It should take some pressure off the market," Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily Trend Report chief technical strategist, told Yahoo Finance. "I think the biggest concerns in the markets have been not only tariffs but the uncertainty ... So I think if we get some clarity on the tariff picture, the market sees that as a positive sign. And I think we do move higher from there."

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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, This is looking like a wild week ahead for the markets, with the main 'event' being the April 2 tariff day -



>>> Trump's 'Liberation Day' and a labor report: What to know this week

Tariffs begin, March jobs report, earnings: What to Watch


Yahoo Finance

by Josh Schafer

March 30, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-liberation-day-and-a-labor-report-what-to-know-this-week-113053983.html


Stocks are hovering near their lowest levels of the year, with President Trump's latest tariff announcements and fears about the US economy's path forward sending equities lower in the final full week of the first quarter.

In the last five days of trading, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell nearly 3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped about 2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the losses, falling nearly 4%.

In the week ahead, Trump's tariffs will take center stage as the president's April 2 "Liberation Day" looms on Wednesday. The president is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on that day, with investors closely watching for specific details on how steep the levies will be.

Later in the week, the focus will shift to the labor market, with the March jobs report set for release on Friday. Updates on private payrolls and job openings, as well as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors, are also expected to gain attention.

On the corporate front, it's expected to be a quiet week for quarterly earnings releases.

A tariff event 'markets can't dismiss'

Trump's widely anticipated tariff announcements are expected to come on Wednesday. And there's a growing list of Wall Street firms that believe markets may not be prepared for what's coming.

The economics team at Goldman Sachs says it believes markets will be surprised to the downside. Goldman's recent survey of market participants shows investors likely expect a 9-percentage-point reciprocal tariff rate, per chief political economist Alec Phillips. But Goldman's team believes the initially proposed rate will be higher, potentially closer to double what market participants expect.

"Administration officials have said explicitly that the soon-to-be announced tariff rates are intended as the basis for negotiation, which incentivizes the administration to propose higher rates at the outset," Phillips wrote. "This occurred in the recent experience with Canada and Mexico tariffs, which twice involved a steep tariff rate that was rescinded mostly or entirely after a few days."

Trump provided markets with a tariff appetizer last week when announcing 25% tariffs on foreign-made vehicles. Ajay Rajadhyaksha, the global chairman of research at Barclays, said during a media roundtable that these tariffs were "a bigger deal than the market is making it out to be."

"It is a statement of intent," Rajadhyaksha said. "And at least in my mind, it releases the risk that April 2 is something that markets can't dismiss. I think we will be negatively surprised."

A pivotal labor report

Trump's tariff turmoil has spooked consumers at a time when economic data is already showing signs of slowing growth and sticky inflation. On Friday, a release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed prices increased more than expected in February while consumer spending increased less than projected. Less than two hours after the release, the latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey showed expectations for inflation over the next year jumped to 5% in March, the highest since November 2022.

The developments sent stocks tumbling, with the S&P 500 falling about 2% on Friday alone.

Citi US equity strategist Scott Chronert wrote in a note to clients that Friday's market action was an example of the prospect of stagflation — where inflation remains sticky and economic growth slows — getting further priced into the market.

For now, economists have largely argued that the economy is only slowing from its above-growth trend of the past few years but not headed for recession. A key part of this narrative has been a labor market that is cooling, but not collapsing. The week ahead will bring a fresh look at just how quickly the jobs market is softening.

The March jobs report, set for release on Friday morning, is expected to show the US labor market added 135,000 jobs in the month, down from the 151,000 seen in February. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%.

"Risks around this report may be asymmetric," Morgan Stanley chief US economist Michael Gapen wrote in a note to clients previewing the event. "We think it would take a lot of employment growth to alleviate fears of a sharper slowdown in the economy, while a mildly below-consensus print could fuel those concerns."

Poor guidance

Amid the tariff talk, more companies than usual are falling short of analyst expectations with their earnings guidance. Of the 107 S&P 500 companies to issue guidance for the first quarter, 68 have issued negative guidance, per FactSet.

This is above the five-year average of 57 companies issuing negative guidance and the 10-year average of 62. FactSet notes that negative guidance occurs when the number provided by a company is lower than the consensus earnings per share estimate from the day before the announcement.

For now, this is one example of how Wall Street entered 2025 overly optimistic. As first quarter earnings season kicks off in earnest on April 11, the big market question will be whether analysts, and the market as a whole, have rerated their expectations low enough as corporates navigate the tariff headwinds.

Weekly Calendar

Monday

Economic data: MNI Chicago PMI, March (45.5 expected, 45.5 prior); Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, March (-5 expected, -8.3 prior)

Earnings: No notable earnings releases.

Tuesday

Economic data: Job openings, February (7.69 million expected, 7.74 million previously); ISM Manufacturing Index, March (49.8 expected, 50.3 prior); S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, March final (49.8 previously)

Earnings: No notable earnings releases.

Wednesday

Economic data: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended March 28 (-2% expected); ADP Private Payrolls, March (+119,000 expected, +77,000 previously); Factory orders, February (0.4% expected, 1.7% prior); Durable goods orders, February final (0.9% prior); Capital Goods orders nondefense excluding air, February final (-0.3% prior)

Earnings: BlackBerry (BB), RH (RH)

Thursday

Economic data: Challenger jobs cuts, year-over-year, March (+103.2% previously); Initial jobless claims, week ending Mar. 29 (224,000 previously); S&P Global US composite PMI, March final (53.5 previously); S&P Global US services PMI, March final (54.3 prior); ISM services index, March (53.1 expected, 53.5 prior)

Earnings: Conagra Brands (CAG), Lamb Weston (LW), Guess (GES)

Friday

Economic calendar: Nonfarm payrolls, March (+135,000 expected, +157,000 previously); Unemployment rate, March (4.1% expected, 4.1% previously); Average hourly earnings, month-over-month, March (+0.3% expected, +0.3% previously); Average hourly earnings, year-over-year, March (+3.9% expected, +3.9% previously); Average weekly hours worked, March (34.2 expected, 34.1 previously); Labor force participation rate, December (62.4% previously)

Earnings: No notable earnings releases.

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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, The market is teetering on a flush, barring some last minute reprieve from Demented Don. For the S+P 500 and Nasdaq, near term support is the previous March low, but the current charts look they will fall right through. Next chart support for the S+P 500 should be 5400, and then 5200, and 5000.

Best case, Trump would need to immediately reverse course on the tariffs. That isn't likely to happen, but even if he appears to back off some, the monthly economic data will continue to deteriorate this year. So not a good backdrop for stocks, or the SVIX. The near term hope for SVIX is that Trump backs off (or appears to), and we get a stock rally, but the 'reprieve' doesn't last very long.

Anyway, looks like a lousy market for some time (imo). If global panic sets in, then we really have problems..



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