Replies to post #2652 on Mining Sector Ideas

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, >> 100% to cash and Treasuries <<

Yes, I'm already there, except for the 1% stock allocation that is underwater, plus the metals related allocation. It seems unlikely that Trump will reverse course on the tariffs, so we get recession, plus inflation (stagflation), and a lousy stock market.

That seems to be what's coming, so no more 'buy the dip' for a while, and the bottom might not arrive until next year (?) As you said, seeing Buffett buying stocks again would be a good sign.



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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Here's a conservative stock approach that I'm considering for 2025. The Fed has penciled in 2 rate cuts for the year, so the 3-10 year Treasury bonds should produce some price upside (cap gains), which would help offset any additional downside on the stock side. So a combination of VGIT (intermediate term Treasury ETF), and VOO (S+P 500) might make sense. The VGIT is currently paying 3.6% interest, and the S+P 500 has 1.2% in dividends, plus add in the likely cap gain from the VGIT for the year, and these help counterbalance the risk of additional stock downside.

So for example -- using 10 K increments, split 5K in VGIT, and 5K in VOO. Not very exciting, but a type of 'hedge', and it would at least allow some participation on the stock side. Stocks have already had a 10% haircut, so some of the downside risk has already been baked into current prices.

I'm feeling bearish, but realize how unpredictable the market can be. And who knows, Trump could come to his senses on the tariffs, the PPT could decide to prop up the market, and Wall St might start getting accustomed to the higher uncertainty levels, etc. Sounds like wishful thinking, but probably best to keep all bases covered, at least modestly.



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